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Game Recap
NSH4
FinalWed, Nov 11, 2026Every game that night
ANA2

NSH beat ANA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.24 expected goals to 4.12. S. Wright led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Gauthier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. J. Annunen stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NSH1124
ANA1012
  1. 1st 8:08ANAC. Gauthier0.13 xG
  2. 1st 8:29NSHJ. Struble0.20 xG
  3. 2nd 16:02NSHN. Hoglander0.09 xG
  4. 3rd 8:05NSHS. Wright0.35 xG
  5. 3rd 12:11ANAM. Granlund0.15 xG
  6. 3rd 16:04NSHS. Stamkos0.20 xG

Team Stats

NSHANA
22Shots on goal29
3.24Expected goals4.12
49Shot attempts60
215v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play0/3
17Hits25
14Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways14
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.24 xGANA 4.12 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdANA goal, 8:08NSH goal, 8:29NSH goal, 16:02NSH goal, 8:05ANA goal, 12:11NSH goal, 16:04

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH22 on goal, 4 scored
ANA29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. WrightC123411+3013:010:53
N. HoglanderLW112301+3013:001:16
S. StamkosC1011010216:054:12
M. BourqueC0111000014:033:02
R. O'ReillyC0000100020:364:26
J. DruryC000102-1018:290:26
F. ForsbergLW000210+3018:204:00
A. KerfootC0000300015:390:44
A. EdstromC000231-1215:070:32
R. ColtonC000320-1014:460:20
V. PinchukC000000009:530:51
R. SchaeferLW000120009:000:00
R. JosiD022112+1026:034:41
J. StrubleD112120+2015:360:00
B. SkjeiD000011-1022:102:14
A. WilsbyD000101+1020:240:14
N. PerbixD000101-1218:520:11
D. HuntD000003+2013:420:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Annunen29272.93159:58Win
J. Saros000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GranlundC112400+1020:443:59
B. SenneckeRW011200+1021:343:59
C. GauthierLW101720+1019:354:03
L. CarlssonC0002210220:403:58
A. KillornLW0002010218:000:49
J. CaulfieldRW0001310016:230:54
T. WasheC000103-3012:060:00
T. TerryRW000011-3011:411:45
R. McQueenC0000200011:180:00
J. MalottLW0001100010:470:00
S. ColangeloRW000350009:440:00
N. NesterenkoC000020-308:080:53
D. HellesonD011211-1020:100:00
J. LaCombeD000212-2029:493:57
P. MintyukovD000121+2022:350:00
T. LuneauD000011-1021:420:55
N. WarrenD0000100013:530:00
T. MitchellD000110-206:270:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Brossoit22184.81858:44Loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1A. Edstrom13:49J. Drury13:37R. Colton14:26
Line 2S. Stamkos11:53R. O'Reilly15:22M. Bourque11:01
Line 3F. Forsberg14:20S. Wright12:05N. Hoglander11:44
Line 4A. Kerfoot10:28V. Pinchuk9:02R. Schaefer9:00
Pair 1R. Josi18:32A. Wilsby18:43
Pair 2B. Skjei16:04N. Perbix16:33
Pair 3J. Struble15:19D. Hunt13:42

ANA

Line 1B. Sennecke16:22C. Gauthier15:32M. Granlund14:26
Line 2A. Killorn15:26L. Carlsson14:57J. Caulfield13:03
Line 3R. McQueen11:18J. Malott10:47S. Colangelo9:44
Line 4T. Terry9:32N. Nesterenko7:15T. Washe9:10
Pair 1D. Helleson17:29J. LaCombe22:43
Pair 2P. Mintyukov19:44N. Warren11:42
Pair 3T. Luneau20:03T. Mitchell6:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-145+1227Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-115+1052Under
NSH F. Forsberg2.5-144+1302Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+115-1202Under
NSH R. Josi2.5+106-1101Under
NSH S. Stamkos2.5+100-1181Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5-110-1102Over
ANA J. Caulfield1.5+110-1251Under
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-108-1102Over
NSH M. Bourque1.5-175+1401Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-165+1354Over
NSH R. Colton1.5-125+1003Over
NSH R. O'Reilly1.5-135+1200Under
NSH S. Wright1.5+140-1604Over
ANA T. Luneau1.5+105-1350Under
ANA T. Terry1.5-165+1350Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • MilestoneRoman Josi NSH 1 point from 800Got there: 2 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNSH 2.8, ANA 3.5NSH 4, ANA 2
Total goals6.46
Shots on goalNSH 25.1, ANA 30.8NSH 22, ANA 29
Win chanceANA 62%NSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier4.271.05141%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.920.96134%0
NSH F. Forsberg2.821.00035%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.821.03032%0
NSH R. Josi2.510.83218%0
NSH S. Stamkos2.410.83134%1
ANA M. Granlund2.140.93227%1
NSH M. Bourque2.010.56123%0
NSH R. Colton1.930.44020%0
ANA A. Killorn1.820.47020%0
NSH R. O'Reilly1.800.82026%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.720.90015%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.400.35015%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.410.55024%0
NSH A. Edstrom1.420.33019%0
ANA R. McQueen1.400.23012%0
NSH J. Drury1.310.40015%0
NSH S. Wright1.340.45319%1
NSH A. Wilsby1.310.3607%0
ANA J. Malott1.210.25012%0
NSH B. Skjei1.200.3809%0
ANA T. Luneau1.200.3908%0
NSH V. Pinchuk1.200.26012%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.110.3309%0
NSH N. Hoglander1.130.33214%1
ANA T. Washe1.110.25012%0
ANA D. Helleson1.020.3117%0
NSH N. Perbix0.910.2506%0
ANA S. Colangelo0.930.23010%0
NSH A. Kerfoot0.900.38012%0
NSH R. Schaefer0.910.1809%0
NSH D. Hunt0.700.1704%0
ANA N. Warren0.700.2102%0
NSH J. Struble0.510.1723%1
ANA T. Mitchell0.510.1003%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.