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Game Recap
NSH4
CBJ8
CBJ beat NSH 8-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.42 expected goals to 2.41. CBJ outshot NSH 37 to 28. K. Marchenko scored three for CBJ. K. Marchenko had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. E. Merzlikins stopped 24 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CBJ | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
- 1st 1:15CBJK. Marchenko0.19 xG
- 1st 16:34CBJA. Fantilli0.09 xG
- 1st 18:10CBJS. MonahanPP0.07 xG
- 1st 18:34NSHF. Forsberg0.05 xG
- 2nd 4:12CBJK. Marchenko0.26 xG
- 2nd 5:43NSHM. Bunting0.01 xG
- 2nd 6:26NSHJ. Barron0.05 xG
- 2nd 12:00CBJA. Fantilli0.25 xG
- 2nd 16:47CBJS. MonahanPP0.64 xG
- 2nd 19:41CBJD. Fabbro0.03 xG
- 3rd 5:23CBJK. Marchenko0.11 xG
- 3rd 9:02NSHJ. Oesterle0.07 xG
Team Stats
NSHCBJ
28Shots on goal37
2.41Expected goals4.42
59Shot attempts61
255v5 shots on goal28
0/4Power play2/5
10Hits22
14Blocked shots12
19Penalty minutes17
11Giveaways12
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.41 xGCBJ 4.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:42 | 3:25 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 19:44 | 2:51 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:49 | 2:56 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:04 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:17 | 2:50 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:59 | 2:12 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 2:21 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 16:12 | 2:50 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:47 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:56 | 2:46 |
| J. Barron | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:04 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 2:43 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 2:59 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:04 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:03 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 26 | 19 | 7 | .731 | 40:00 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 11 | 10 | 1 | .909 | 20:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:27 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:00 | 3:27 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:27 | 3:41 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:06 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 3:35 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:41 | 2:06 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:21 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 1:22 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:02 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:20 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:06 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:09 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:18 | 3:41 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:33 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 11 | 21:05 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:20 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 16:49 | 0:44 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 59:38 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.1, CBJ 3.3 | NSH 4, CBJ 8 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 29.6, CBJ 29.1 | NSH 28, CBJ 37 |
| Win chance | CBJ 54% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.6 | 4 | 1.05 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 4 | 0.96 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 6 | 0.84 | 4 | 31% | 3 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 3 | 0.66 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 5 | 0.86 | 4 | 25% | 2 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.1 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.72 | 3 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH J. Vrana | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.6 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.