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Game Recap
NSH2
NJD5
NJD beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.81 expected goals to 1.99. NJD outshot NSH 46 to 22. N. Hischier scored three for NJD. E. Haula had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Markstrom stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| NJD | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 5:08NSHF. Forsberg0.01 xG
- 1st 11:29NJDE. Haula0.06 xG
- 2nd 3:52NJDN. Hischier0.19 xG
- 2nd 10:01NJDN. HischierPP0.26 xG
- 2nd 16:57NJDN. Hischier0.25 xG
- 3rd 7:39NSHZ. L'Heureux0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:25NJDJ. DowlingEN0.74 xG
Team Stats
NSHNJD
22Shots on goal46
1.99Expected goals5.81
50Shot attempts71
155v5 shots on goal33
0/5Power play1/2
30Hits32
11Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes23
20Giveaways18
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 1.99 xGNJD 5.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 8:03 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:32 | 8:06 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:44 | 10:33 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 8:21 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:16 | 5:18 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 4:32 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:42 | 2:09 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 4:09 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:01 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 1:16 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:15 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:58 | 8:53 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:44 | 4:07 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:43 | 0:13 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 39:53 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1.000 | 18:56 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 2:01 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:37 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 2:01 |
| E. Haula | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 15:13 | 0:31 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 17 | 13:37 | 0:37 |
| J. Dowling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 2:01 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:01 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Bowers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:37 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:18 | 0:37 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:06 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:33 | 2:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.0, NJD 3.1 | NSH 2, NJD 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 28.7, NJD 30.3 | NSH 22, NJD 46 |
| Win chance | NJD 52% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 0 | 1.11 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.0 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 5 | 0.68 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.8 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 6 | 0.95 | 3 | 30% | 3 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 5 | 0.65 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 7 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD S. Bowers | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.