PIT beat NSH 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 2.45. PIT outshot NSH 36 to 25. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Rakell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 25 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 10:00PITP. Tomasino0.06 xG
- 2nd 10:43PITS. Crosby0.13 xG
- 3rd 17:59PITB. RustEN0.38 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.45 xGPIT 4.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 58:47 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:56 | 3:57 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:47 | 3:31 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:30 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:02 | 2:02 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:29 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 2:28 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | 2:33 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:08 | 2:54 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:26 | 2:30 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 3:06 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.9, PIT 2.9 | NSH 0, PIT 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 30.3, PIT 29.5 | NSH 25, PIT 36 |
| Win chance | PIT 51% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 3 | 1.03 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.1 | 4 | 1.20 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.8 | 6 | 0.84 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.7 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.