Game Recap: NSH 2, TOR 3, December 4, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalWed, Dec 4, 2024Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat NSH 3-2, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.79. M. Marner led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). F. Minten had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Woll stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	1	0	1	2
TOR	0	0	3	3

1st 5:26NSHJ. Marchessault0.43 xG
3rd 0:31TORA. Matthews0.27 xG
3rd 2:29TORA. Matthews0.14 xG
3rd 5:06TORW. NylanderPP0.14 xG
3rd 16:38NSHM. Jankowski0.22 xG

Team Stats

NSHTOR

24Shots on goal28

2.79Expected goals2.90

62Shot attempts52

185v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play1/3

15Hits32

13Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways25

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.79 xGTOR 2.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH24 on goal, 2 scored

TOR27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	15:51	2:05
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	12:37	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	19:57	2:05
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	18:35	1:14
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:50	1:14
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	15:24	2:05
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:11	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:32	0:23
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:10	0:06
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:09	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:41	0:23
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-2	0	26:27	2:05
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	21:23	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:29	0:23
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:00	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:54	0:17
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	15:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	28	25	3	.893	58:26	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	3	3	0	2	1	+1	0	22:34	2:53
A. Matthews	C	2	0	2	7	0	4	0	0	20:11	2:42
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:30	3:29
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	1	4	2	-1	0	17:45	2:41
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	21:11	2:45
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:35	0:31
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	5	7	0	+1	0	13:23	1:08
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:23	1:15
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:08	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:50	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:31	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:39	1:18
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	24:13	1:05
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:05	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	18:05	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	16:51	0:05
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	15:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan O'Reilly NSH Faces TOR, his team until May 20230 SOG
HometownSteven Stamkos NSH Plays near home (born in Markham)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, TOR 3.2	NSH 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NSH 29.1, TOR 31.5	NSH 24, TOR 28
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.3	7	1.14	2	45%	2
TOR W. Nylander	3.7	2	1.07	1	37%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.4	1	0.86	0	31%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	5	0.93	0	36%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	2	0.71	1	31%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.9	2	0.84	1	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	0	0.83	0	32%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.4	0	1.19	3	31%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	1	0.45	0	10%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	1	0.61	1	24%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	2	0.66	1	11%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	0	0.65	0	23%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.7	1	0.37	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.40	0	8%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	0	0.50	0	19%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.5	1	0.66	0	20%	0
TOR F. Minten	1.2	5	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	0	0.26	0	13%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	2	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.1	3	0.28	1	12%	1
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.27	1	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.0	2	0.22	0	6%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.0	1	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	3	0.22	1	9%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	1	0.37	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.24	0	4%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.