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Game Recap
NSH4
Final/OTTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night
TOR5

TOR beat NSH 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.33 expected goals to 4.28. TOR outshot NSH 37 to 25. A. Matthews led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Tavares had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Stolarz stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
NSH22004
TOR03115
  1. 1st 7:13NSHS. StamkosPP0.68 xG
  2. 1st 9:08NSHN. Hoglander0.60 xG
  3. 2nd 3:03NSHN. Hoglander0.46 xG
  4. 2nd 4:56TORJ. Tavares0.04 xG
  5. 2nd 6:58TORW. NylanderPP0.14 xG
  6. 2nd 13:30NSHS. Stamkos0.06 xG
  7. 2nd 14:31TORG. McKenna0.10 xG
  8. 3rd 8:54TORJ. Roslovic0.16 xG
  9. OT 4:46TORA. Matthews0.07 xG

Team Stats

NSHTOR
25Shots on goal37
4.28Expected goals4.33
51Shot attempts72
215v5 shots on goal27
1/1Power play1/3
22Hits20
16Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes2
19Giveaways13
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 4.28 xGTOR 4.33 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTNSH goal, 7:13NSH goal, 9:08NSH goal, 3:03TOR goal, 4:56TOR goal, 6:58NSH goal, 13:30TOR goal, 14:31TOR goal, 8:54TOR goal, 4:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH24 on goal, 4 scored
TOR37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. ForsbergLW022211+1021:001:42
S. StamkosC2023010019:431:42
N. HoglanderLW202220+1010:380:00
R. O'ReillyC011101-2024:131:42
M. BourqueC011110+1019:480:00
M. WoodRW0111100016:541:42
A. KerfootC000110-2018:500:00
J. DruryC0001110215:010:00
A. EdstromC0003710013:380:00
J. MarchessaultRW0002000213:170:00
R. ColtonC000220-1212:520:00
R. JosiD011112-1027:061:42
B. SkjeiD0110000022:530:00
A. WilsbyD0112200015:050:00
N. PerbixD000103-1020:490:00
N. HagueD0001140019:120:00
W. TrudeauD0001110010:050:00
J. AhcanD000011+107:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Saros37325.86564:35OT loss
M. Murray000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC134411+2025:094:13
W. NylanderRW123100+2022:484:14
J. RoslovicC112400+1017:461:11
G. McKennaLW112401+1014:451:48
K. MarchenkoRW011301-1021:354:16
J. TavaresC1016000018:463:40
E. CowanRW0003300016:011:13
C. SissonsC0002400013:390:00
N. PaulLW000230-2013:270:41
B. DuhaimeLW0001200011:220:00
T. BluegerC000110-109:530:00
B. GroulxC000000007:310:00
D. RaddyshD0002020025:514:28
M. RiellyD0002010220:390:59
J. McCabeD0001400019:590:00
C. TanevD000013+1018:380:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD0000100017:270:32
T. StecherD0001020017:200:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Stolarz25214.84064:46Win
S. Bobrovsky000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos16:13R. O'Reilly17:10A. Kerfoot15:48
Line 2J. Drury12:58A. Edstrom13:36R. Colton12:41
Line 3J. Marchessault13:06M. Bourque16:52F. Forsberg17:45
Line 4N. Hoglander10:38M. Wood11:13
Pair 1N. Perbix18:18B. Skjei18:39
Pair 2R. Josi18:35N. Hague19:08
Pair 3A. Wilsby12:04W. Trudeau10:38

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic15:22A. Matthews17:52K. Marchenko16:31
Line 2C. Sissons11:57N. Paul12:46G. McKenna12:57
Line 3J. Tavares13:58W. Nylander15:59E. Cowan13:32
Line 4T. Blueger9:53B. Duhaime9:40B. Groulx7:31
Pair 1C. Tanev16:56J. McCabe18:17
Pair 2M. Rielly18:04D. Raddysh18:06
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson16:39T. Stecher17:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 18 overs hit (56%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5-114-1054Over
NSH F. Forsberg3.5+125-1382Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5-104-1202Under
TOR J. Roslovic2.5+180-1784Over
TOR J. Tavares2.5+140-1456Over
NSH R. Josi2.5+130-1381Under
NSH S. Stamkos2.5+100-1203Over
TOR W. Nylander2.5-115-1021Under
NSH A. Kerfoot1.5+175-2351Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5+105-1453Over
NSH J. Marchessault1.5-144+1202Over
NSH M. Bourque1.5-120-1051Under
TOR M. Rielly1.5+130-1552Over
NSH M. Wood1.5-125+1041Under
NSH N. Hoglander1.5+160-1952Over
TOR N. Paul1.5+115-1552Over
NSH R. Colton1.5-130+1102Over
NSH R. O'Reilly1.5-160+1401Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownSteven Stamkos NSH Plays near home (born in Markham)2 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNSH 3.1, TOR 3.2NSH 4, TOR 5
Total goals6.49
Shots on goalNSH 30.2, TOR 27.9NSH 25, TOR 37
Win chanceTOR 52%TOR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.941.01440%1
NSH F. Forsberg3.120.97234%0
TOR K. Marchenko2.930.84130%0
TOR W. Nylander2.911.14337%1
NSH S. Stamkos2.730.86234%2
TOR D. Raddysh2.520.65015%0
NSH R. Josi2.510.79121%0
TOR J. Tavares2.560.85131%1
NSH J. Marchessault2.220.61024%0
NSH R. O'Reilly2.110.84124%0
NSH M. Bourque2.110.51119%0
TOR J. Roslovic1.940.48219%1
NSH R. Colton1.820.34014%0
NSH M. Wood1.610.43118%0
TOR E. Cowan1.630.52017%0
TOR N. Paul1.620.37018%0
TOR M. Rielly1.520.47010%0
NSH B. Skjei1.300.37111%0
TOR C. Sissons1.320.29011%0
TOR T. Blueger1.210.34011%0
NSH A. Kerfoot1.210.43014%0
NSH N. Hoglander1.220.31214%2
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.100.3607%0
NSH J. Drury1.110.28010%0
NSH A. Wilsby1.120.2614%0
NSH A. Edstrom1.030.18010%0
TOR T. Stecher1.010.1805%0
NSH N. Perbix1.010.2206%0
TOR B. Groulx0.900.1708%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.910.1709%0
TOR J. McCabe0.910.2806%0
NSH N. Hague0.910.1805%0
TOR C. Tanev0.600.2204%0
NSH J. Ahcan0.500.1203%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.