Game Recap: NSH 4, UTA 3, December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

NSH beat UTA 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.41 expected goals to 3.43. S. Stamkos led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Guenther had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Saros stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	1	1	2	4
UTA	1	1	1	3

1st 5:48UTAJ. PeterkaPP0.13 xG
1st 9:51NSHR. Josi0.14 xG
2nd 3:41UTAM. Sergachev0.05 xG
2nd 7:51NSHL. Evangelista0.34 xG
3rd 4:02UTAD. Guenther0.11 xG
3rd 11:39NSHS. StamkosPP0.19 xG
3rd 13:17NSHS. Stamkos0.18 xG

Team Stats

NSHUTA

26Shots on goal31

2.41Expected goals3.43

54Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play1/4

16Hits16

19Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways15

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.41 xGUTA 3.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH26 on goal, 4 scored

UTA31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	2	1	3	3	0	2	+1	0	17:12	2:48
R. O'Reilly	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	+1	0	20:33	2:41
L. Evangelista	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	16:37	2:48
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:03	2:49
T. Jost	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:33	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	17:02	0:45
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	14:17	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	4	2	3	-1	0	14:05	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	13:18	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:12	0:53
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:24	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:24	0:46
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+2	0	22:43	2:57
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	19:34	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:24	0:37
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	21:55	0:46
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	19:21	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	19:20	5:21
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	23:05	5:31
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:46	5:16
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:10	5:16
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:33	1:05
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:32	0:57
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:59	1:11
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	13:11	0:00
D. But	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:29	1:11
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	9:34	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	8:38	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:59	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	25:19	4:43
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	20:23	1:44
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:09	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	18:25	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	15:57	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	11:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	26	22	4	.846	58:15	Loss
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:51F. Forsberg15:30R. O'Reilly12:47

Line 2M. McCarron10:49R. Schaefer10:24C. Smith11:47

Line 3T. Jost10:33F. Svechkov12:21M. Wood8:38

Line 4M. Bunting12:19E. Haula12:03L. Evangelista13:32

Pair 1R. Josi17:56N. Perbix15:38

Pair 2B. Skjei16:23A. Wilsby17:59

Pair 3N. Hague14:52N. Blankenburg13:48

UTA

Line 1C. Keller15:45J. Peterka16:25N. Schmaltz15:21

Line 2L. Crouse13:22B. Hayton13:34D. Guenther12:14

Line 3M. Carcone12:18J. McBain11:51D. But11:18

Line 4L. O'Brien6:59K. Stenlund7:25A. Kerfoot7:48

Pair 1M. Sergachev17:01S. Durzi17:23

Pair 2N. Schmidt16:58J. Marino19:09

Pair 3I. Cole14:37N. DeSimone11:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Kerfoot NSH First game back in Salt Lake City, his team until May 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, UTA 3.2	NSH 4, UTA 3
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	NSH 25.6, UTA 28.7	NSH 26, UTA 31
Win chance	UTA 59%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.1	6	0.87	2	31%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	1	0.85	1	34%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.8	1	1.03	1	32%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	3	0.68	1	16%	1
UTA J. Peterka	2.4	3	0.85	1	29%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	2	0.89	1	27%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	3	0.59	2	18%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	3	0.73	3	31%	2
UTA M. Carcone	2.0	2	0.49	0	21%	0
UTA L. Crouse	2.0	2	0.50	1	24%	0
UTA D. But	1.9	0	0.26	0	12%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	3	0.69	1	13%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.8	3	0.44	1	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.74	2	25%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.47	0	20%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	1	0.35	0	9%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	1	0.47	1	10%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	3	0.40	0	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	1	0.36	0	16%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	0	0.28	1	7%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	4	0.22	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	3	0.36	0	12%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.25	1	6%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.33	0	7%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.16	0	6%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	1	0.23	0	7%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	2	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.38	0	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	0	0.22	0	13%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	2	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.