Game Recap: NSH 1, UTA 4, April 9, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

UTA4

UTA beat NSH 4-1, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 3.27. C. Keller led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). Z. L'Heureux had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. K. Vejmelka stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	1	1
UTA	1	1	2	4

1st 14:26UTAK. Yamamoto0.37 xG
2nd 5:35UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.20 xG
3rd 3:03UTAL. Crouse0.12 xG
3rd 6:05UTAD. Guenther0.15 xG
3rd 10:22NSHE. HaulaPP0.35 xG

Team Stats

NSHUTA

30Shots on goal27

3.27Expected goals2.95

64Shot attempts55

225v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play1/3

18Hits21

11Blocked shots12

16Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways15

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.27 xGUTA 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 1 scored

UTA26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	0	15:19	0:30
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	10	14:55	1:13
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:53	2:44
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:01	2:37
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	16:22	2:42
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:38	2:40
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:05	1:16
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	2	14:44	0:00
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:23	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:19	1:11
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	8:23	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	22:47	1:33
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	21:44	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	20:57	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	19:43	0:39
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:02	2:20
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	23	4	.852	59:42	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	3	3	2	0	0	+2	2	17:39	3:21
N. Schmaltz	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	18:58	3:21
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	0	17:58	3:14
L. Cooley	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	17:30	3:19
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	16:27	0:47
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:02	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:47	0:53
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:57	1:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:35	0:59
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:35	0:05
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	9:51	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	8:39	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	24:10	2:11
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	20:45	2:03
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:42	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:28	0:17
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:09	0:05
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	15:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:40R. O'Reilly15:10L. Evangelista13:49

Line 2F. Forsberg15:06J. Marchessault12:58E. Haula11:16

Line 3Z. L'Heureux12:36J. Kemell12:27F. Svechkov15:28

Line 4T. Jost13:34M. Wood9:50R. Schaefer8:05

Pair 1B. Skjei19:22N. Perbix19:34

Pair 2A. Wilsby18:55J. Barron17:14

Pair 3J. Oesterle14:05R. Ufko14:21

UTA

Line 1D. Guenther14:32L. Cooley14:03K. Yamamoto14:02

Line 2N. Schmaltz14:21C. Keller14:18L. Crouse13:11

Line 3A. Kerfoot13:41J. Peterka13:57M. Carcone13:36

Line 4K. Stenlund10:45B. Tanev9:33L. O'Brien8:21

Pair 1M. Sergachev20:25M. Weegar16:51

Pair 2N. Schmidt16:18J. Marino17:22

Pair 3I. Cole16:20S. Durzi15:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Kerfoot NSH First game back in Salt Lake City, his team until May 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, UTA 3.5	NSH 1, UTA 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	NSH 25.8, UTA 29.7	NSH 30, UTA 27
Win chance	UTA 60%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	3	0.89	2	33%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.8	2	1.03	3	30%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.6	0	0.84	0	33%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	2	0.86	2	27%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	1	0.78	2	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.0	3	0.71	0	32%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.0	2	0.62	0	26%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	2	0.44	0	20%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.52	1	23%	1
UTA J. Peterka	1.8	2	0.56	0	23%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	0	0.70	1	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	2	0.77	0	25%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.7	1	0.46	0	14%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.6	3	0.39	0	9%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.5	3	0.30	0	12%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.4	0	0.38	1	9%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	1	0.41	0	19%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.4	4	0.38	1	16%	1
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	5	0.24	1	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	2	0.27	0	3%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.43	0	14%	0
NSH J. Oesterle	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.1	2	0.35	0	8%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	2	0.33	1	15%	1
NSH J. Kemell	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	0	0.28	0	7%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	2	0.15	0	7%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.8	2	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.8	2	0.24	0	9%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.23	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	0	0.16	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.6	0	0.36	0	4%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	1	0.35	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.