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Game Recap
NSH2
VGK7
VGK beat NSH 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.40. S. Theodore led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Eichel had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. A. Schmid stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
- 1st 14:10NSHL. Evangelista0.15 xG
- 2nd 17:17VGKA. Holtz0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:22VGKS. Theodore0.05 xG
- 3rd 5:52VGKP. Dorofeyev0.19 xG
- 3rd 8:52VGKM. Stone0.24 xG
- 3rd 12:26VGKC. Reinhardt0.16 xG
- 3rd 13:16VGKM. Marner0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:12VGKK. Kolesar0.25 xG
- 3rd 19:38NSHF. ForsbergPP0.07 xG
Team Stats
NSHVGK
29Shots on goal36
2.40Expected goals3.83
60Shot attempts63
215v5 shots on goal31
1/3Power play0/1
14Hits25
16Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways20
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.40 xGVGK 3.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 4:29 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:20 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 4:12 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:41 | 5:11 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:14 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 15:29 | 0:57 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:56 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:26 | 4:50 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:25 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:36 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 36 | 29 | 7 | .806 | 59:52 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:54 | 1:44 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:53 | 1:49 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 1:46 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:53 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 16:16 | 1:47 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:07 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:11 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:14 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:16 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:55 | 0:13 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1E. Haula13:38M. Bunting14:24S. Stamkos11:36
Line 2F. Forsberg13:47L. Evangelista13:29R. O'Reilly12:59
Line 3M. McCarron11:24C. Smith12:32R. Schaefer11:12
Line 4J. Marchessault12:42F. Svechkov12:16T. Jost11:17
Pair 3N. Blankenburg15:23J. Barron13:38
VGK
Line 1M. Stone13:09J. Eichel14:23I. Barbashev14:16
Line 2R. Smith15:22P. Dorofeyev15:00M. Marner13:07
Line 3T. Hertl13:33K. Kolesar12:01B. Bowman11:50
Line 4C. Reinhardt9:33A. Holtz9:32T. Laczynski9:08
Pair 1N. Hanifin19:42Z. Whitecloud16:10
Pair 2B. Hutton16:40K. Korczak17:46
Pair 3S. Theodore15:29J. Lauzon15:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.5, VGK 3.7 | NSH 2, VGK 7 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 24.0, VGK 30.2 | NSH 29, VGK 36 |
| Win chance | VGK 68% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 8 | 1.32 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.9 | 5 | 0.77 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.7 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.5 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.3 | 2 | 1.19 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 3 | 1.23 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 6 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 0.9 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.8 | 3 | 0.17 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.