Game Recap: NYI 0, CBJ 2, October 30, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYI0

FinalWed, Oct 30, 2024Every game that night

CBJ2

CBJ beat NYI 2-0, with the chances close: 2.72 expected goals to 2.47. E. Merzlikins stopped 26 of 26.

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	0	0	0
CBJ	0	0	2	2

NYICBJ

26Shots on goal26

2.47Expected goals2.72

75Shot attempts52

215v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/0

23Hits18

12Blocked shots20

0Penalty minutes2

22Giveaways16

10Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

NYI 2.47 xGCBJ 2.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

NYI26 on goal, 0 scored

CBJ26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	2	1	0	-1	22:46	1:06
B. Horvat	C	3	2	1	-1	22:02	1:05
B. Nelson	C	3	0	1	-1	19:32	1:04
K. Palmieri	C	3	1	0	-1	19:08	1:03
A. Lee	LW	2	1	0	-1	17:44	0:54
M. Tsyplakov	RW	2	4	1	0	15:40	0:56
J. Pageau	C	0	4	0	0	15:07	0:57
S. Holmstrom	RW	2	1	1	0	15:07	0:53
C. Cizikas	C	1	1	1	0	13:18	0:00
M. Martin	LW	1	3	2	-1	9:23	0:00
K. MacLean	C	1	1	0	-1	9:10	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	-1	7:46	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	-1	23:03	1:16
A. Pelech	D	1	1	1	-1	22:45	0:02
M. Reilly	D	2	0	1	0	22:37	0:42
R. Pulock	D	2	0	0	-1	19:52	0:02
S. Mayfield	D	0	3	1	0	16:56	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	1	0	10:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	25	24	1	.960	57:23	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Danforth	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	2	16:39	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	16:29	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:10	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:31	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	18:58	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	16:32	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:29	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:24	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:52	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:54	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:09	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	9:45	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	23:41	0:00
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+2	0	22:23	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:36	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	20:59	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:09	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	2	0.78	0	14%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	3	0.78	0	34%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.9	3	0.87	0	36%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.9	2	0.94	0	26%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.9	3	0.71	0	30%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	1	0.67	0	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	2	0.50	0	25%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.5	1	0.78	0	12%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	4	0.74	0	26%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.4	2	0.60	0	23%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.3	0	0.57	0	22%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	2	0.49	1	18%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.9	2	0.29	0	6%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.6	2	0.37	0	7%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	1	0.35	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.5	2	0.45	1	19%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	2	0.47	1	10%	1
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.5	2	0.51	0	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	0	0.45	0	17%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	1	0.40	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	2	0.37	1	7%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.3	2	0.32	1	12%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	1	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	2	0.34	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.2	0	0.23	0	11%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	1	0.26	1	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	2	0.36	0	19%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.1	1	0.25	0	3%	0
NYI H. Fasching	1.0	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NYI K. MacLean	1.0	1	0.24	0	12%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.9	1	0.17	0	8%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.7	0	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.