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Game Recap
NYI0
DAL3
DAL beat NYI 3-0, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 3.23. T. Seguin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Oettinger stopped 34 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Team Stats
NYIDAL
34Shots on goal27
3.23Expected goals2.92
68Shot attempts45
305v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play0/2
17Hits21
13Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes0
20Giveaways14
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.23 xGDAL 2.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:55 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:58 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:55 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:33 | 0:55 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:20 | 1:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:55 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:02 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:57 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:07 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:03 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:21 | 0:05 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 23:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:55 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:08 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:16 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:49 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 57:03 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:54 |
| T. Seguin | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:57 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:35 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:01 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 1:31 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:06 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:05 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 2:01 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:55 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:18 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:28 | 2:59 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:24 | 1:06 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:29 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:09 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:23 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 34 | 34 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.7, DAL 3.3 | NYI 0, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 27.0, DAL 32.2 | NYI 34, DAL 27 |
| Win chance | DAL 60% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 3.4 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.0 | 5 | 1.04 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.8 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.8 | 4 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.7 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.7 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.4 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.9 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.