Game Recap: NYI 3, NJD 2 (OT), November 10, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

Final/OTMon, Nov 10, 2025Every game that night

NJD2

NYI beat NJD 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.78 expected goals to 3.69. NJD outshot NYI 35 to 24. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hughes had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 3.9. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	0	1	1	1	3
NJD	1	0	1	0	2

1st 2:12NJDT. MeierPP0.24 xG
2nd 6:55NYIB. Horvat0.19 xG
3rd 17:07NYIK. PalmieriPP0.07 xG
3rd 19:55NJDS. Nemec0.05 xG
OT 1:17NYIM. Barzal0.32 xG

Team Stats

NYINJD

24Shots on goal35

1.78Expected goals3.69

38Shot attempts74

215v5 shots on goal21

1/1Power play1/4

17Hits13

19Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.78 xGNJD 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI23 on goal, 3 scored

NJD34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	1	2	1	3	0	+1	0	17:45	1:08
K. Palmieri	C	1	1	2	2	3	0	+1	2	16:55	1:08
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	2	17:35	1:08
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:53	1:08
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:18	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:17	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	16:30	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:07	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:12	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	9:33	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:27	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	23:25	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	0	21:26	1:08
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:01	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:16	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:47	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	35	33	2	.943	61:17	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	22:07	6:28
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	0	2	0	0	0	21:55	6:51
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	24:58	6:39
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	24:00	6:45
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:08	0:19
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:46	0:39
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:29	0:44
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:34	0:28
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:57	0:50
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:41	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	9:35	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	0	27:24	6:49
S. Nemec	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:06	1:02
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:28	0:16
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	17:09	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:39	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	24	21	3	.875	58:23	OT loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1J. Drouin15:00M. Barzal15:38S. Holmstrom12:06

Line 2K. Palmieri13:32E. Heineman14:31B. Horvat12:42

Line 3A. Lee11:44A. Duclair10:45J. Pageau11:15

Line 4C. Ritchie9:21M. Tsyplakov10:00C. Cizikas8:15

Pair 1S. Mayfield17:15A. Romanov18:01

Pair 2R. Pulock16:13M. Schaefer19:24

Pair 3A. Pelech12:28T. DeAngelo13:25

NJD

Line 1D. Mercer15:31T. Meier13:19N. Hischier15:08

Line 2O. Palat13:40C. Glass12:46A. Gritsyuk12:33

Line 3J. Bratt11:36J. Hughes13:32S. Noesen9:07

Line 4Z. MacEwen9:23L. Glendening8:28P. Cotter9:41

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler19:12S. Nemec20:13

Pair 2B. Dillon15:58L. Hughes15:48

Pair 3C. White12:01D. Cholowski13:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20262 SOG
HometownKyle Palmieri NYI Plays near home (born in Smithtown)1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.0, NJD 3.1	NYI 3, NJD 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NYI 28.8, NJD 28.6	NYI 24, NJD 35
Win chance	NJD 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	11	1.24	0	40%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.0	5	0.72	2	31%	1
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	1	0.78	2	33%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	3	0.59	1	13%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	1	0.85	1	23%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	0	1.00	2	27%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	3	0.93	0	32%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	1	0.50	0	23%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	2	0.61	2	26%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.1	2	0.43	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	4	0.66	1	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	1	0.61	0	26%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	1	0.40	0	8%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	0	0.41	0	18%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	2	0.35	0	14%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.4	2	0.37	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	1	0.27	0	3%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	3	0.64	1	16%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.31	1	6%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.44	0	15%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.2	1	0.34	1	5%	1
NJD O. Palat	1.2	2	0.38	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	2	0.47	0	20%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	2	0.33	0	17%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.27	0	15%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.1	0	0.18	0	11%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	1	0.26	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
NJD Z. MacEwen	0.8	2	0.12	0	6%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.7	1	0.16	0	2%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.