NYI beat OTT 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.06 expected goals to 2.58. B. Horvat led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Jensen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Varlamov stopped 28 of 30.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.06 xGOTT 2.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:08 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:08 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:02 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:54 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 5:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:39 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:42 | 1:38 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 1:37 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:52 | 1:39 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 24:44 | 1:43 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:19 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:14 | 1:02 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 0:00 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:15 | 0:01 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:24 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:36 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:03 | 3:30 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:52 | 3:16 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 2:05 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:12 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:57 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:05 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:10 | 0:42 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 2 | 23:24 | 2:51 |
| N. Jensen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:01 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:23 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:30 | Loss |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.1, OTT 3.2 | NYI 4, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.0, OTT 33.0 | NYI 25, OTT 30 |
| Win chance | OTT 52% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 3 | 0.80 | 3 | 34% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.8 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.4 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 1 | 0.93 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.2 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 2.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 6 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.