Game Recap: NYI 5, OTT 4, October 18, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI5

FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

NYI beat OTT 5-4, with the chances close: 3.29 expected goals to 3.35. OTT outshot NYI 32 to 23. A. Lee led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Pinto had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Sorokin stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	3	2	5
OTT	1	3	0	4

1st 17:01OTTD. PerronPP0.09 xG
2nd 5:32OTTS. Pinto0.04 xG
2nd 6:50NYIE. Heineman0.19 xG
2nd 9:57NYIB. Horvat0.14 xG
2nd 16:46OTTT. Stützle0.13 xG
2nd 17:45NYIA. Lee0.30 xG
2nd 18:47OTTD. Cozens0.13 xG
3rd 6:00NYIK. Palmieri0.13 xG
3rd 18:57NYIA. Lee0.14 xG

Team Stats

NYIOTT

23Shots on goal32

3.29Expected goals3.35

49Shot attempts61

215v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play1/2

28Hits29

19Blocked shots9

2Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways22

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.29 xGOTT 3.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI23 on goal, 5 scored

OTT32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lee	LW	2	1	3	4	2	0	+2	0	13:25	1:12
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:57	3:22
K. Palmieri	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	18:59	3:20
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	18:30	3:21
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:37	3:19
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	2	7	0	+1	2	13:24	0:41
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	13:22	0:29
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	12:43	1:09
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:42
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	13:11	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:42	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	11:49	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	22:33	2:23
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	0	0	20:32	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:12	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+1	0	18:48	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	18:47	2:08
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:10	0:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	32	28	4	.875	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	19:20	2:38
D. Batherson	RW	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	17:11	2:28
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	6	0	2	-1	0	18:41	1:29
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	18:08	2:38
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	-2	0	12:27	1:03
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	10:03	1:03
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	17:24	2:37
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:03	1:20
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:34	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	2	13:10	0:16
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	12:35	0:16
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	2	10:22	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	19:47	1:25
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	16:32	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	24:15	2:32
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	18:57	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:15	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	23	18	5	.783	58:50	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair14:26M. Barzal14:55K. Palmieri14:00

Line 2B. Horvat13:41E. Heineman12:13J. Drouin12:35

Line 3C. Cizikas11:17K. MacLean12:02S. Holmstrom11:28

Line 4A. Lee12:00M. Shabanov11:34J. Pageau10:52

Pair 1S. Mayfield17:45M. Schaefer17:26

Pair 2A. Pelech17:49R. Pulock16:27

Pair 3T. DeAngelo16:39A. Boqvist14:41

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson13:33D. Cozens14:15D. Perron11:24

Line 2M. Amadio14:34S. Pinto13:19R. Greig12:30

Line 3L. Eller12:19F. Zetterlund12:54N. Cousins10:20

Line 4C. Giroux11:56T. Stützle14:51A. Kaliyev9:00

Pair 1J. Spence18:15T. Kleven16:04

Pair 2A. Zub17:04J. Sanderson17:36

Pair 3N. Jensen15:04T. Chabot16:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJean-Gabriel Pageau NYI Plays in his hometown1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.1, OTT 3.1	NYI 5, OTT 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	NYI 29.1, OTT 29.4	NYI 23, OTT 32
Win chance	OTT 51%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	2	0.82	1	33%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.9	0	0.99	1	26%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	2	0.71	1	29%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.4	1	0.66	1	22%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	3	0.99	2	28%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.4	4	0.53	3	25%	2
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	0	0.61	0	9%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	1	0.78	2	26%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	6	0.69	1	28%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	0	0.55	0	11%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	1	0.57	2	11%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.9	1	0.41	0	17%	0
OTT A. Kaliyev	1.8	3	0.31	1	14%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	3	0.49	0	18%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	1	0.53	1	22%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	0	0.64	0	20%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	1	0.44	0	22%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	2	0.42	0	19%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	2	0.63	1	16%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.3	4	0.30	0	13%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	0	0.25	1	3%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	3	0.43	1	15%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	1	0.26	0	10%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.28	1	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.0	1	0.32	0	3%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	3	0.27	0	5%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.0	2	0.27	1	14%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	1	0.38	0	16%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.23	1	4%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	2	0.17	1	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.