Game Recap: NYI 3, PHI 4 (SO), April 12, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

Final/SOSat, Apr 12, 2025Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat NYI 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 3.15. NYI outshot PHI 40 to 22. T. Foerster led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Engvall had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. S. Ersson stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NYI	0	2	1	0	3
PHI	0	1	2	1	4

2nd 3:28PHIT. FoersterPP0.13 xG
2nd 10:54NYIA. LeePP0.14 xG
2nd 17:58NYIN. Dobson0.20 xG
3rd 4:29PHIJ. Pelletier0.18 xG
3rd 10:34PHIT. Foerster0.16 xG
3rd 18:59NYIB. Horvat0.02 xG

Team Stats

NYIPHI

40Shots on goal22

3.15Expected goals2.71

65Shot attempts49

275v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play1/4

19Hits16

13Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways15

9Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.15 xGPHI 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI39 on goal, 3 scored

PHI21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+1	0	21:45	4:24
A. Lee	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	2	14:23	3:40
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	18:36	2:13
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:24	2:16
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	17:22	3:38
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:32	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:16	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	14:11	1:32
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:45	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	2	2	4	4	0	0	0	26:47	3:39
N. Dobson	D	1	1	2	2	0	4	+2	2	22:06	3:28
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	17:36	0:00
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:33	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	19:31	2:27
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:21	2:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	22	19	3	.864	63:11	OT loss
T. Lennox	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	2	0	2	3	0	2	0	0	20:43	2:57
O. Tippett	RW	0	2	2	5	1	0	+1	0	13:54	0:40
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	20:56	3:39
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:35	3:35
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:04	0:40
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	16:28	1:23
J. Pelletier	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:31	3:41
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:03	3:37
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:37	0:00
K. Dorwart	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	2	25:49	0:33
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	6	-1	0	23:40	0:03
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	20:24	0:06
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:12	0:03
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	16:28	0:38
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	40	37	3	.925	64:33	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, PHI 3.0	NYI 3, PHI 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NYI 27.1, PHI 28.7	NYI 40, PHI 22
Win chance	NYI 53%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI M. Michkov	3.0	3	0.90	1	28%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	6	0.73	2	30%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.5	2	0.65	1	20%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	1	0.93	0	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	1	0.61	2	27%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	5	0.54	2	23%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	3	0.67	0	28%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	4	0.63	2	14%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.1	3	0.58	2	26%	2
NYI N. Dobson	2.1	2	0.62	2	12%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	3	0.45	0	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	0	0.51	1	18%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.6	6	0.38	0	16%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.5	0	0.30	0	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.5	0	0.49	1	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	1	0.37	0	5%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.55	0	17%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	1	0.47	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	1	0.53	0	17%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	1	0.30	0	6%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.2	2	0.37	1	13%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.34	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	3	0.30	0	12%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.34	0	7%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	4	0.55	0	22%	0
NYI H. Fasching	1.2	3	0.28	0	12%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	2	0.32	0	18%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	0	0.15	0	3%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.11	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.18	1	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.