Game Recap: NYI 3, PIT 4, October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat NYI 4-3, with the chances close: 3.40 expected goals to 3.55. NYI outshot PIT 37 to 28. E. Malkin led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). K. Palmieri had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. T. Jarry stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	2	0	3
PIT	1	2	1	4

1st 3:23PITR. RakellPP0.28 xG
1st 12:02NYIJ. Drouin0.11 xG
2nd 4:04NYIK. Palmieri0.10 xG
2nd 5:41PITH. Brunicke0.11 xG
2nd 8:58PITS. CrosbyPP0.29 xG
2nd 19:19NYIM. Shabanov0.09 xG
3rd 14:21PITJ. Brazeau0.21 xG

Team Stats

NYIPIT

37Shots on goal28

3.55Expected goals3.40

69Shot attempts55

235v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play2/5

22Hits23

13Blocked shots12

25Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways21

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.55 xGPIT 3.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI37 on goal, 3 scored

PIT27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	21:01	5:17
K. Palmieri	C	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	2	20:39	5:18
J. Drouin	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	15	19:47	5:20
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	11:50	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:45	0:25
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	7	2	0	+1	2	21:16	5:18
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	16:47	1:26
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	13:21	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	13:12	0:40
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	12:33	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:19	0:40
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:59	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:15	0:30
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:30	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	23:35	5:15
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	2	20:24	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:05	0:13
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:04	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	28	24	4	.857	57:45	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	3	3	4	0	0	0	0	18:11	4:01
R. Rakell	RW	1	1	2	2	2	2	0	0	20:01	3:38
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	1	2	2	-1	0	19:30	3:45
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:30	0:50
F. Hallander	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	12:36	0:21
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	11:22	0:29
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	0	10:04	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:12	0:21
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:27	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:10	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:06	0:52
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:21	0:50
H. Brunicke	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	12:43	0:56
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	26:50	3:41
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:45	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	20:53	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	20:34	3:55
C. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:21	0:21

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	37	34	3	.919	59:24	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1A. Lee12:45M. Barzal13:06K. Palmieri12:03

Line 2J. Drouin12:57E. Heineman12:30B. Horvat11:31

Line 3C. Cizikas10:48M. Tsyplakov10:23A. Duclair10:03

Line 4S. Holmstrom9:49J. Pageau10:25M. Shabanov9:20

Pair 1A. Romanov17:34T. DeAngelo16:59

Pair 2A. Pelech14:05R. Pulock14:04

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:12M. Schaefer14:56

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby13:57R. Rakell13:03V. Koivunen10:55

Line 2A. Mantha11:50J. Brazeau10:53E. Malkin12:14

Line 3N. Acciari10:45B. Lizotte10:13C. Dewar9:11

Line 4T. Novak10:04B. Kindel11:55F. Hallander10:55

Pair 1K. Letang17:04R. Shea18:04

Pair 2E. Karlsson15:18P. Wotherspoon16:46

Pair 3C. Jones12:35H. Brunicke10:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.1, PIT 3.1	NYI 3, PIT 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NYI 29.6, PIT 29.4	NYI 37, PIT 28
Win chance	PIT 50%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	7	0.79	0	32%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	1	1.14	2	34%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	4	0.93	1	24%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.7	4	0.64	0	27%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	2	0.76	2	28%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.4	3	0.66	0	13%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	8	0.68	1	28%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.67	0	12%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	4	0.48	0	9%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.9	4	0.72	3	24%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.9	1	0.65	0	16%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	2	0.47	1	19%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.5	1	0.44	0	13%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.5	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.52	1	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	2	0.31	0	12%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	3	0.30	0	3%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	1	0.50	0	16%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	1	0.41	0	20%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.4	1	0.28	0	11%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	0	0.35	0	7%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	0	0.51	1	21%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	0	0.21	0	12%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.1	1	0.51	1	13%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.20	1	5%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	0.9	1	0.24	1	12%	1
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.19	0	2%	0
NYI E. Heineman	0.8	0	0.23	0	12%	0
PIT C. Jones	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 31 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.