Game Recap: NYI 6, TOR 3, December 21, 2024

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Game Recap

NYI6

FinalSat, Dec 21, 2024Every game that night

TOR3

NYI beat TOR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.03 expected goals to 3.00. B. Horvat led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). W. Nylander had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	3	0	3	6
TOR	1	1	1	3

1st 1:47NYIM. Tsyplakov0.17 xG
1st 4:48NYIB. Horvat0.11 xG
1st 12:29TORW. Nylander0.03 xG
1st 16:08NYIJ. Pageau0.19 xG
2nd 5:43TORW. Nylander0.28 xG
3rd 5:23NYII. George0.06 xG
3rd 10:36NYIN. Dobson0.02 xG
3rd 13:49TORB. McMann0.12 xG
3rd 17:40NYIM. BarzalEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

NYITOR

34Shots on goal29

4.03Expected goals3.00

69Shot attempts55

335v5 shots on goal26

0/0Power play0/0

11Hits36

13Blocked shots15

25Giveaways21

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 4.03 xGTOR 3.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI34 on goal, 6 scored

TOR29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+2	14:41	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	15:41	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	2	2	3	2	1	+1	15:13	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	17:38	0:00
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	16:43	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	15:14	0:00
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	14:55	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	18:04	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	17:34	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:58	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:11	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:59	0:00
A. Romanov	D	0	2	2	2	2	2	+2	22:48	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	23:02	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+5	15:46	0:00
I. George	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	+3	14:51	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	22:07	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-3	21:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	0	2	7	1	1	+1	20:50	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	20:02	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	18:07	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:03	0:00
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	-3	16:09	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	15:28	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	14:53	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	13:04	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:36	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	12:00	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	11:54	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:16	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	21:56	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-2	21:19	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	22:46	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	19:21	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	18:58	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	13:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	33	28	5	.848	57:35	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCasey Cizikas NYI Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, TOR 3.1	NYI 6, TOR 3
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	NYI 28.3, TOR 30.1	NYI 34, TOR 29
Win chance	TOR 53%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	7	1.04	2	37%	2
TOR J. Tavares	3.0	1	0.84	1	31%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.6	4	0.69	3	29%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	5	0.83	1	23%	1
NYI B. Nelson	2.5	0	0.78	0	33%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	3	0.58	2	26%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	1	0.67	0	27%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.2	1	0.61	1	11%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	2	0.43	1	21%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.1	3	1.13	1	29%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.1	2	0.55	0	20%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.62	0	8%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.6	0	0.54	1	22%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	0	0.56	1	24%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	1	0.38	1	6%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	3	0.52	0	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.36	0	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	3	0.47	1	17%	1
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	2	0.49	1	17%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	3	0.32	0	6%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	1	0.27	0	4%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.2	2	0.23	2	5%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	2	0.43	2	20%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.1	1	0.25	1	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.32	1	6%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.37	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.18	1	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	2	0.17	0	9%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	3	0.22	0	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.11	0	2%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.7	0	0.22	0	10%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.27	0	4%	0
NYI I. George	0.5	3	0.15	1	3%	1
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.