Game Recap: NYI 3, TOR 1, March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

TOR1

NYI beat TOR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 2.54. M. Barzal led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). E. Heineman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	2	1	0	3
TOR	0	1	0	1

1st 4:15NYIB. SchennPP0.11 xG
1st 9:43NYIC. RitchiePP0.06 xG
2nd 4:40TORS. Lorentz0.12 xG
2nd 11:57NYIE. Heineman0.15 xG

Team Stats

NYITOR

34Shots on goal27

3.61Expected goals2.54

67Shot attempts50

235v5 shots on goal21

2/6Power play0/3

9Hits20

8Blocked shots13

11Penalty minutes17

11Giveaways13

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.61 xGTOR 2.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI34 on goal, 3 scored

TOR26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	3	3	1	0	1	+1	0	18:31	4:29
C. Ritchie	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	-1	0	15:06	4:04
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:57	3:25
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	6	2	0	+1	0	15:32	2:48
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:21	3:09
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	17:54	4:05
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:54	2:55
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:57	0:21
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:36	2:50
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:19	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:01	0:04
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	10:01	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	22:57	4:26
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:22	2:53
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:25	0:26
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	17:35	0:45
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:19	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Groulx	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	12:13	0:02
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	12:03	0:02
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:35	2:55
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	4	20:16	2:52
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	19:01	2:54
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:19	2:49
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:10	1:30
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:30	1:35
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:49	1:28
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	11:26	1:32
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:48	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:32	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	25:53	3:31
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:28	0:03
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	19:05	0:02
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	7	18:21	0:53
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:19	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	34	31	3	.912	58:33	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal13:18E. Heineman11:44B. Horvat11:02

Line 2A. Lee13:02J. Pageau12:11C. Ritchie11:02

Line 3B. Schenn11:40A. Duclair10:44S. Holmstrom10:53

Line 4C. Cizikas11:16O. Palat9:57K. MacLean10:01

Pair 1R. Pulock15:32M. Schaefer16:04

Pair 2T. DeAngelo16:18A. Pelech14:27

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:09C. Soucy13:45

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares14:26M. Maccelli14:43W. Nylander16:24

Line 2M. Domi12:13M. Knies11:59E. Cowan11:55

Line 3B. Groulx10:28N. Robertson10:21D. Joshua9:54

Line 4C. Jarnkrok7:48S. Lorentz8:15J. Quillan8:23

Pair 1J. McCabe16:49B. Carlo13:56

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson18:44T. Stecher14:30

Pair 3M. Rielly14:14P. Myers13:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces TOR, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
HometownCalum Ritchie NYI Plays near home (born in Oakville)1 G, 1 A, 4 SOG
HometownCasey Cizikas NYI Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownMatthew Schaefer NYI Plays near home (born in Hamilton)1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, TOR 3.2	NYI 3, TOR 1
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	NYI 31.2, TOR 27.8	NYI 34, TOR 27
Win chance	NYI 51%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.5	3	0.86	0	34%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.6	1	0.95	3	24%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	2	1.04	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	3	0.83	0	33%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	3	0.75	1	24%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	2	0.52	0	22%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	3	0.50	1	11%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.1	6	0.37	1	20%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.0	3	0.75	0	26%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	0	0.43	0	20%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.59	1	20%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	0	0.53	0	10%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	2	0.54	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	1	0.29	0	5%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	1	0.41	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	3	0.49	0	9%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	4	0.46	2	17%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	3	0.56	0	21%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	2	0.48	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	1	0.51	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	0	0.32	0	7%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.2	2	0.32	0	13%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	2	0.14	0	4%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	0	0.38	0	17%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	4	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	2	0.36	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
TOR B. Groulx	1.0	0	0.18	1	11%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.30	0	15%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	3	0.21	1	9%	1
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	2	0.15	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.8	0	0.11	0	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.