Game Recap: NYI 1, TOR 2, September 30, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalWed, Sep 30, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

TOR beat NYI 2-1, with the chances close: 2.48 expected goals to 2.66. E. Cowan led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Duclair had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	0	1	1
TOR	2	0	0	2

1st 7:14TORC. Sissons0.08 xG
1st 11:55TORE. CowanPP0.45 xG
3rd 14:09NYIE. HeinemanSH0.23 xG

Team Stats

NYITOR

27Shots on goal26

2.66Expected goals2.48

68Shot attempts47

215v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play1/4

24Hits19

11Blocked shots21

8Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways15

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.66 xGTOR 2.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI27 on goal, 1 scored

TOR26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	22:31	5:59
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:26	0:15
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:17	2:46
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	18:35	5:29
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:39	5:23
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:03	2:34
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	14:27	5:12
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:50	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	12:17	1:14
V. Eklund	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	11:58	2:33
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:06	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	27:45	6:18
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:51	0:32
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:14	1:45
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	17:09	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:27	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	26	24	2	.923	57:56	Loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Cowan	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	13:23	3:00
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	15:43	3:09
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:53	3:22
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	11:22	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:04	4:45
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	2	18:16	4:43
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:29	4:29
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	16:58	4:26
G. McKenna	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:32	3:14
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	14:39	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:32	0:00
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:49	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:49	3:18
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:39	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:36	4:50
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	2	20:19	0:11
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:05	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:30	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	27	26	1	.963	58:22	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri10:38B. Horvat11:34S. Holmstrom11:49

Line 2M. Maccelli9:50C. Ritchie12:07B. Schenn8:19

Line 3C. Cizikas7:49O. Palat8:57A. Duclair10:26

Line 4J. Pageau9:44V. Eklund9:10E. Heineman9:55

Pair 1A. Pelech14:33M. Schaefer18:34

Pair 2R. Pulock11:48A. Romanov12:49

Pair 3T. DeAngelo13:01L. Stanley10:57

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews12:30K. Marchenko12:23J. Roslovic11:31

Line 2J. Tavares10:47G. McKenna11:57W. Nylander11:23

Line 3N. Paul8:59E. Cowan8:51C. Sissons7:29

Line 4B. Duhaime9:18B. Groulx7:59T. Blueger7:43

Pair 1D. Raddysh15:07M. Rielly15:07

Pair 2C. Tanev14:02J. McCabe14:10

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson11:26T. Stecher11:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 13 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	-104	-125	1	Under
NYI B. Horvat	3.5	+130	-165	4	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+112	-135	4	Over
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	+146	-185	1	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+115	-144	4	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-128	+110	3	Over
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	-114	-114	1	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	-120	+100	1	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	1.5	-125	+105	2	Over
NYI M. Maccelli	1.5	-122	-105	1	Under
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	+100	-127	1	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	-130	+105	0	Under

3 of 31 overs hit (10%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
NYI A. Romanov	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
TOR B. Groulx	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+340	-490	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+800	-1200	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+470	-700	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+500	-1000	1	Over
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+450	-800	1	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+240	-290	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+370	-650	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+195	-220	0	Under

3 of 13 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+130	-170	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+164	-200	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+230	-285	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+135	-180	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+162	–	1	Over
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+155	-215	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+118	-155	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+122	-150	0	Under

3 of 13 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-175	+140	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-145	+115	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+116	-145	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+165	-175	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-132	+105	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+160	-185	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-178	+160	0	Under

0 of 12 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+190	-290	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+290	-500	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+370	-650	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+210	-300	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+290	-500	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+370	-650	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+330	-450	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+210	-300	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+200	-280	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TOR A. Stolarz	25.5	-120	-105	26	Over
NYI I. Sorokin	24.5	-118	+100	24	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces TOR, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
HometownCalum Ritchie NYI Plays near home (born in Oakville)2 SOG
HometownCasey Cizikas NYI Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownMatthew Schaefer NYI Plays near home (born in Hamilton)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.4, TOR 2.9	NYI 1, TOR 2
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	NYI 32.3, TOR 25.1	NYI 27, TOR 26
Win chance	NYI 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	1	0.91	0	38%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.4	4	0.82	1	32%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.9	4	0.74	0	15%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.9	3	0.74	0	23%	0
TOR K. Marchenko	2.8	3	0.78	0	29%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	1	1.05	0	36%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	4	0.62	0	24%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	1	0.79	0	30%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	0	0.51	0	11%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.9	1	0.36	1	19%	1
NYI B. Schenn	1.8	1	0.63	0	22%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	1.8	2	0.44	1	18%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.6	2	0.58	0	20%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	3	0.51	2	18%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	1	0.45	1	9%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	0	0.55	0	21%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	0	0.26	0	5%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	2	0.26	0	6%	0
NYI M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.52	0	15%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	1	0.51	0	17%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.3	1	0.30	1	15%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.3	0	0.34	0	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	2	0.37	0	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	4	0.40	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.26	1	10%	1
TOR B. Groulx	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.8	2	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.