Game Recap: NYI 4, VGK 0, January 9, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI4

FinalThu, Jan 9, 2025Every game that night

VGK0

NYI beat VGK 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.53 expected goals to 1.67. VGK outshot NYI 30 to 21. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Z. Whitecloud had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. I. Sorokin stopped 30 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	2	1	4
VGK	0	0	0	0

1st 17:04NYIA. Lee0.10 xG
2nd 5:30NYIB. Nelson0.18 xG
2nd 10:41NYIB. Horvat0.23 xG
3rd 17:26NYIC. CizikasEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

NYIVGK

21Shots on goal30

2.53Expected goals1.67

45Shot attempts72

165v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/1

19Hits12

21Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.53 xGVGK 1.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI19 on goal, 4 scored

VGK29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	19:11	1:19
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+2	0	20:21	1:19
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	2	3	3	+2	0	18:35	1:19
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:54	1:19
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:56	0:39
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	14:51	0:02
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	14:26	0:02
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:02	0:41
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	15:04	0:39
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:58	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:06	0:00
A. Romanov	D	0	2	2	1	2	0	+3	0	20:58	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+3	0	24:37	1:19
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:46	0:39
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	21:44	0:02
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	15:07	0:02
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:46	0:39

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	30	30	0	1.000	59:16	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	3	0	1	-2	0	20:44	1:27
T. Hertl	C	1	0	0	-2	0	19:54	1:27
M. Stone	RW	2	0	1	-1	0	19:49	1:27
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	0	0	2	18:13	1:27
P. Dorofeyev	RW	3	0	0	-3	0	16:47	0:33
K. Kolesar	RW	1	3	0	0	0	13:33	0:00
B. Howden	C	1	2	1	0	0	13:08	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	2	0	0	-1	0	13:05	0:33
A. Holtz	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	12:20	0:33
T. Pearson	LW	1	1	0	-2	0	12:14	0:00
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	1	1	1	-1	0	10:16	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	1	0	0	-1	0	23:23	0:33
N. Hanifin	D	2	0	0	-2	0	21:54	0:33
S. Theodore	D	3	0	1	-1	0	21:02	1:27
B. McNabb	D	1	1	1	-1	0	20:29	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	4	2	2	-2	0	16:01	0:00
N. Hague	D	1	1	0	-1	0	15:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	20	17	3	.850	58:30	Loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, VGK 3.5	NYI 4, VGK 0
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	NYI 27.5, VGK 32.3	NYI 21, VGK 30
Win chance	VGK 62%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	3	1.16	0	32%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.6	3	0.65	1	28%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.6	3	0.76	1	21%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	3	0.54	0	26%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	2	0.57	1	25%	1
NYI B. Nelson	2.3	1	0.67	2	29%	1
NYI N. Dobson	2.3	0	0.54	1	10%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.3	2	0.71	0	25%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	2.2	1	0.61	0	28%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.1	1	0.59	0	9%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	1	0.55	1	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	1	0.62	0	23%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	2	0.99	0	29%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	2	0.59	0	11%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	3	0.70	0	9%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	3	0.52	0	23%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.6	0	0.44	1	16%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.5	1	0.42	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	0	0.28	0	4%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.3	1	0.19	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.3	1	0.41	0	16%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	1	0.24	2	4%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.30	0	6%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	2	0.39	0	15%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.29	0	4%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.1	2	0.25	0	12%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.0	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	1
NYI D. Cholowski	0.9	0	0.27	0	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	4	0.23	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.16	0	3%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.