Game Recap: NYI 4, VGK 3 (OT), November 13, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI4

Final/OTThu, Nov 13, 2025Every game that night

VGK3

NYI beat VGK 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.06 expected goals to 4.70. M. Schaefer led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Theodore had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	2	0	1	1	4
VGK	0	1	2	0	3

1st 14:03NYIE. Heineman0.06 xG
1st 17:59NYIM. SchaeferPP0.05 xG
2nd 18:56VGKS. Theodore0.28 xG
3rd 8:23VGKT. Hertl0.29 xG
3rd 10:45VGKR. Smith0.04 xG
3rd 17:23NYIM. Barzal0.15 xG
OT 3:02NYIJ. PageauSH0.05 xG

Team Stats

NYIVGK

24Shots on goal29

3.06Expected goals4.70

55Shot attempts63

105v5 shots on goal16

1/5Power play0/5

9Hits22

14Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes10

7Giveaways12

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.06 xGVGK 4.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI24 on goal, 4 scored

VGK29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	22:19	4:24
J. Drouin	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	21:10	4:24
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	5	0	2	+1	0	24:27	4:24
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	18:03	2:12
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:57	0:38
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:20	3:47
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:09	1:35
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:11	3:02
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:15	1:51
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:08	0:52
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:30	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	6:47	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	1	2	4	2	2	0	0	25:59	4:16
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:38	2:37
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:50	0:12
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:37	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	2	19:47	0:08
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:15	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	29	26	3	.897	61:46	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	24:35	5:25
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	20:00	5:32
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:50	0:58
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:35	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:46	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+1	0	9:07	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	20:59	4:46
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	19:10	5:25
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	16:54	0:49
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16:45	5:15
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:19	0:56
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	6:26	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	6	0	3	+1	0	22:19	0:56
J. Lauzon	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	4	16:04	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	22:06	1:35
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	21:21	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:28	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	20	4	.833	62:31	OT loss
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1J. Drouin14:26M. Barzal16:47S. Holmstrom13:37

Line 2K. Palmieri12:59E. Heineman13:49B. Horvat11:38

Line 3J. Pageau9:19A. Lee10:10A. Duclair7:40

Line 4C. Ritchie7:24M. Tsyplakov7:19C. Cizikas5:35

Pair 1R. Pulock16:52M. Schaefer15:48

Pair 2A. Romanov16:24A. Boqvist10:12

Pair 3A. Pelech15:52T. DeAngelo12:04

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel14:15M. Marner13:26I. Barbashev14:25

Line 2T. Hertl11:47P. Dorofeyev11:13B. Bowman10:35

Line 3R. Smith10:04B. Saad9:58B. Howden8:56

Line 4C. Sissons9:53K. Kolesar9:07C. Reinhardt6:26

Pair 1B. McNabb14:50S. Theodore15:43

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud15:55N. Hanifin16:09

Pair 3J. Lauzon14:03K. Korczak11:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, VGK 3.3	NYI 4, VGK 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	NYI 26.5, VGK 30.5	NYI 24, VGK 29
Win chance	VGK 60%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	5	1.19	1	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.4	2	0.73	0	36%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	2	0.76	2	31%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.7	4	0.83	1	30%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.4	5	0.83	1	22%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	4	0.51	2	11%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.2	2	0.48	0	21%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.2	2	0.61	0	25%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	6	0.77	1	10%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	1	0.53	0	10%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	0	1.32	0	31%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.8	1	0.44	1	20%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	0	0.68	0	24%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	1	0.43	1	16%	1
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	3	0.37	1	18%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.45	1	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.4	0	0.33	1	7%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.64	2	16%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.44	1	15%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	1	0.47	0	19%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	2	0.23	0	3%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	0	0.31	0	16%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	0	0.26	0	9%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.0	1	0.17	0	10%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	2	0.14	1	3%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	0	0.17	0	7%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.8	1	0.22	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.25	1	10%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.8	0	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.