Game Recap: NYI 3, WSH 1, October 31, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalFri, Oct 31, 2025Every game that night

WSH1

NYI beat WSH 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.78. A. Beauvillier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. I. Sorokin stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	2	3
WSH	0	1	0	1

2nd 4:48WSHT. Wilson0.40 xG
2nd 14:58NYIJ. PageauSH0.09 xG
3rd 4:29NYIB. Horvat0.09 xG
3rd 18:44NYIM. BarzalEN0.50 xG

Team Stats

NYIWSH

23Shots on goal23

3.56Expected goals2.78

53Shot attempts51

145v5 shots on goal18

0/5Power play0/4

12Hits14

16Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes8

22Giveaways21

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.56 xGWSH 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI22 on goal, 3 scored

WSH22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:34	5:17
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:04	5:19
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:45	3:28
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:35	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+1	0	12:44	3:24
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:02	4:25
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:23	5:09
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16:17	3:51
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	15:21	3:32
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:09	0:04
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	9:59	0:05
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:13	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+3	0	20:06	0:04
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	19:29	0:03
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:43	0:17
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:56	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	17:58	5:20
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:42	3:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	19:47	3:13
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:26	3:28
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:27	3:50
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	18:17	6:22
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	15:56	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	14:21	3:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:04	0:04
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:52	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	13:51	2:16
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:04	2:26
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:13	0:53
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:02	0:59
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:21	0:23
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	2	20:21	2:18
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	25:08	4:29
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	20:27	0:04
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:26	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	22	20	2	.909	59:32	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri12:16C. Ritchie12:26M. Barzal11:44

Line 2A. Lee11:44S. Holmstrom10:15J. Pageau9:43

Line 3C. Cizikas9:39K. MacLean9:46A. Duclair9:03

Line 4B. Horvat11:16E. Heineman9:07J. Drouin11:14

Pair 1R. Pulock15:31A. Pelech15:19

Pair 2S. Mayfield15:56M. Schaefer11:57

Pair 3A. Romanov15:42T. DeAngelo11:17

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson11:53A. Protas12:34C. McMichael11:27

Line 2N. Dowd11:43B. Duhaime10:27J. Sourdif13:47

Line 3A. Ovechkin11:22R. Leonard10:38H. Lapierre11:21

Line 4A. Beauvillier9:31S. Milano8:10

Pair 1J. Chychrun16:56M. Roy16:27

Pair 2J. Carlson16:02M. Fehérváry15:23

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk9:59D. Chisholm11:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, WSH 3.4	NYI 3, WSH 1
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	NYI 27.2, WSH 28.7	NYI 23, WSH 23
Win chance	WSH 61%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.4	2	1.05	0	41%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.73	1	30%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	1	0.68	1	19%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	2	0.81	1	22%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	2	0.44	0	10%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	3	0.49	0	22%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	2	0.60	0	26%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	1	0.86	1	32%	1
WSH A. Protas	2.2	1	0.86	0	26%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	2	0.70	0	12%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	2	0.60	0	24%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	5	0.38	0	16%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	0	0.35	0	16%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	0	0.72	0	24%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	3	0.40	0	10%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	0	0.41	0	21%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.4	3	0.35	1	18%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	2	0.60	0	15%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.22	1	3%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.21	0	11%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.2	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	2	0.32	1	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	1	0.37	1	13%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	0	0.42	1	18%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.33	0	7%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.1	0	0.23	0	14%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.36	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.23	1	5%	0
WSH S. Milano	1.0	2	0.40	0	16%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	1	0.36	0	10%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	2	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.