Game Recap: NYR 3, ANA 5, January 19, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalMon, Jan 19, 2026Every game that night

ANA5

ANA beat NYR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.88 expected goals to 2.72. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Sennecke had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. L. Dostal stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	1	3
ANA	1	2	2	5

1st 4:00NYRM. Robertson0.05 xG
1st 11:31ANAM. McTavish0.16 xG
2nd 4:03NYRA. PanarinPP0.13 xG
2nd 8:29ANAJ. Viel0.30 xG
2nd 18:02ANAA. KillornPP0.43 xG
3rd 1:01ANAC. Gauthier0.14 xG
3rd 7:11NYRV. GavrikovPP0.06 xG
3rd 19:24ANAC. GauthierEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

NYRANA

22Shots on goal26

2.72Expected goals3.88

52Shot attempts54

145v5 shots on goal18

2/4Power play1/3

20Hits29

14Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways20

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.72 xGANA 3.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR21 on goal, 3 scored

ANA26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	-2	0	22:41	4:37
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	-1	0	21:15	4:42
V. Trocheck	C	0	2	2	2	3	1	-1	0	19:50	4:26
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	23:39	4:36
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:31	1:02
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	14:43	1:17
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:22	0:47
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	13:06	1:01
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:07	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:33	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	8:19	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:32	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	-2	0	25:31	5:01
M. Robertson	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	-1	2	19:35	0:02
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	18:31	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:34	0:54
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:42	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Martin	25	21	4	.840	59:05	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	2	0	2	4	3	1	+3	0	17:10	1:53
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:15	2:05
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	2	14:48	0:00
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	4	1	2	+1	0	14:20	1:55
J. Viel	LW	1	0	1	3	5	0	+2	0	13:42	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:51	1:45
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	6	3	0	+1	2	18:25	1:55
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:17	2:15
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:15	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:18	2:07
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:39	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	2	4	5	0	0	24:47	2:05
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	23:28	1:41
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:36	2:19
D. Helleson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	15:17	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	17:41	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:09	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	22	19	3	.864	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:56G. Perreault15:29J. Miller15:17

Line 2A. Panarin15:45A. Lafrenière13:26V. Trocheck13:06

Line 3N. Laba12:03B. Othmann9:26W. Cuylle9:24

Line 4J. Brodzinski8:19T. Raddysh8:45S. Carrick7:32

Pair 1V. Gavrikov17:33B. Schneider15:50

Pair 2S. Morrow16:07U. Vaakanainen15:19

Pair 3W. Borgen14:01M. Robertson18:07

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund16:39B. Sennecke16:30A. Killorn14:38

Line 2C. Gauthier14:21J. Viel12:47R. Poehling12:01

Line 3C. Kreider9:30M. McTavish10:56R. Strome9:11

Line 4R. Johnston9:39T. Washe9:24

Pair 1J. LaCombe19:47J. Trouba17:57

Pair 2R. Gudas15:41O. Zellweger14:31

Pair 3P. Mintyukov13:54D. Helleson14:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayCutter Gauthier ANA Turns 22 that day2 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, ANA 3.2	NYR 3, ANA 5
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	NYR 25.8, ANA 30.5	NYR 22, ANA 26
Win chance	ANA 52%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.1	4	1.29	2	36%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.0	4	0.70	2	25%	2
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	1	1.00	1	31%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.6	6	0.95	0	27%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.3	0	0.87	0	22%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.3	4	0.70	1	24%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.90	2	29%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.2	2	1.04	2	31%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	1	0.51	1	21%	1
ANA J. Trouba	2.0	2	0.36	1	8%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	0	0.62	0	31%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	0	0.55	1	11%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	0	0.49	0	20%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	1	0.32	0	8%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	1	0.57	0	21%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.7	3	0.49	1	11%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	0	0.30	0	7%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.4	1	0.38	1	9%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.3	0	0.42	0	13%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	1	0.45	1	15%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.3	2	0.32	0	4%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	2	0.27	1	6%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.2	0	0.37	0	16%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	0	0.29	0	14%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.1	1	0.15	0	8%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	0	0.20	0	8%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
ANA J. Viel	0.9	3	0.11	1	7%	1
ANA D. Helleson	0.8	1	0.19	1	5%	0
ANA T. Washe	0.8	0	0.25	0	13%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	2	0.20	0	2%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.19	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.