Game Recap: NYR 4, BUF 0, October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

BUF0

NYR beat BUF 4-0, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 2.14. A. Lafrenière led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Tuch had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. I. Shesterkin stopped 37 of 37.

Team Stats

NYRBUF

33Shots on goal37

2.20Expected goals2.14

57Shot attempts67

245v5 shots on goal27

0/3Power play0/4

28Hits24

16Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.20 xGBUF 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR30 on goal, 3 scored

BUF36 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	1	2	1	4	0	+3	0	19:52	3:58
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	15:54	3:39
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	21:10	5:56
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	12:36	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	7:48	1:13
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:57	3:59
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	4	16:24	1:59
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:21	1:57
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:50	0:04
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:21	0:03
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:45	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	9:30	0:54
A. Fox	D	1	0	1	4	0	4	+1	0	23:17	4:01
C. Soucy	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:40	0:16
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	3	6	0	+1	2	18:49	2:01
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	2	16:23	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	21:23	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	15:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	37	37	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	6	0	0	-1	0	22:32	4:36
T. Thompson	C	5	1	0	-1	2	19:34	5:06
J. Zucker	LW	5	3	0	-1	2	19:23	5:05
J. Norris	C	4	1	0	0	0	18:51	5:03
R. McLeod	C	2	0	1	-3	0	18:22	3:23
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	0	0	17:56	2:57
J.Kulich	C	2	0	1	0	0	16:42	2:44
J. Doan	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	12:21	2:54
P. Krebs	C	0	2	0	-2	0	11:55	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	2	0	2	-1	2	9:33	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	4	0	-2	0	8:24	0:00
M. Geertsen	LW	0	2	0	-1	2	4:26	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	4	3	1	-2	0	25:06	4:32
B. Byram	D	1	3	0	-2	0	24:46	3:39
C. Timmins	D	1	1	1	-1	0	19:38	0:01
M. Samuelsson	D	1	3	2	-1	0	19:26	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	1	-1	0	11:58	0:00
R. Johnson	D	0	0	2	-1	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	32	29	3	.906	59:51	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin14:33A. Lafrenière11:49V. Trocheck5:21

Line 2T. Raddysh11:39N. Laba12:54C. Sheary11:02

Line 3W. Cuylle11:48J. Miller11:57M. Zibanejad11:58

Line 4S. Carrick9:46M. Rempe8:36A. Edstrom9:45

Pair 1V. Gavrikov15:40A. Fox14:33

Pair 2U. Vaakanainen15:00B. Schneider15:22

Pair 3C. Soucy14:52W. Borgen12:20

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch13:56J.Kulich13:32J. Quinn14:25

Line 2T. Thompson12:51J. Norris11:41J. Zucker14:05

Line 3R. McLeod11:04J. Doan9:27P. Krebs11:45

Line 4B. Malenstyn6:19J. Danforth7:57M. Geertsen4:26

Pair 1R. Dahlin17:34B. Byram17:33

Pair 2C. Timmins14:25M. Samuelsson14:42

Pair 3J. Bryson11:58R. Johnson11:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSam Carrick BUF First game against NYR since he left (his team until Mar 2026)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.3, BUF 3.2	NYR 4, BUF 0
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	NYR 27.2, BUF 29.4	NYR 33, BUF 37
Win chance	NYR 51%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	5	1.00	0	40%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	2	1.16	1	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	4	0.77	0	15%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	6	0.85	0	30%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.4	2	0.49	0	22%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	1	0.90	0	27%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	5	0.67	0	24%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	1	0.79	1	26%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	1	1.01	2	28%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.51	0	20%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	2	0.43	0	16%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.9	4	0.62	0	29%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	4	0.84	1	14%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	5	0.56	2	21%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	1	0.53	0	18%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.6	2	0.63	0	20%	0
BUF J. Danforth	1.4	2	0.35	0	15%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.3	0	0.39	0	12%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	2	0.32	0	6%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.2	1	0.32	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	3	0.27	1	7%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	0	0.26	1	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	1	0.42	0	9%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.26	0	10%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.25	1	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	1	0.18	0	7%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	2	0.20	1	7%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	1.0	1	0.27	0	3%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
BUF R. Johnson	0.9	0	0.17	0	2%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	2	0.20	0	11%	0
BUF M. Geertsen	0.6	0	0.05	0	5%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.5	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.