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Game Recap
NYR4
CBJ0
NYR beat CBJ 4-0, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.15. V. Trocheck led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Aston-Reese had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Shesterkin stopped 21 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 1:43NYRA. Lafrenière0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:36NYRA. Panarin0.11 xG
- 3rd 14:38NYRV. Trocheck0.12 xG
- 3rd 16:41NYRV. TrocheckEN0.84 xG
Team Stats
NYRCBJ
21Shots on goal21
3.27Expected goals3.15
46Shot attempts57
155v5 shots on goal20
0/1Power play0/3
21Hits24
17Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways21
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.27 xGCBJ 3.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:42 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:06 | 1:29 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:32 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 1:28 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 1:50 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:10 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:18 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:36 | 1:31 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:36 | 0:29 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 18:21 | 0:31 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 21 | 21 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:56 | 4:25 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:08 | 4:21 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 4:24 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:35 | 4:23 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:17 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:37 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:00 | 1:34 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:23 | 3:51 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 2:11 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:37 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 59:17 | Loss |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.3, CBJ 2.9 | NYR 4, CBJ 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 29.6, CBJ 28.6 | NYR 21, CBJ 21 |
| Win chance | NYR 56% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 1 | 1.19 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.4 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 0 | 1.05 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.0 | 3 | 0.59 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.