Game Recap: NYR 6, PIT 1, October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR6

FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

PIT1

NYR beat PIT 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 2.52. NYR outshot PIT 30 to 19. A. Fox led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Carrick had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	3	2	6
PIT	0	1	0	1

1st 7:40NYRM. ZibanejadSH0.14 xG
2nd 3:04PITB. Kindel0.05 xG
2nd 6:06NYRA. Fox0.01 xG
2nd 9:25NYRW. CuyllePP0.19 xG
2nd 16:38NYRA. FoxPP0.05 xG
3rd 5:40NYRM. Rempe0.03 xG
3rd 14:12NYRT. Raddysh0.25 xG

Team Stats

NYRPIT

30Shots on goal19

3.43Expected goals2.52

59Shot attempts46

225v5 shots on goal15

2/4Power play0/4

30Hits14

12Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways17

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.43 xGPIT 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR29 on goal, 6 scored

PIT19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Carrick	C	0	2	2	4	3	1	+3	0	15:36	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	0	12:43	0:50
A. Edstrom	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	11:18	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	20:12	4:51
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	-1	0	19:02	4:19
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:24	4:59
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	3	5	0	-1	0	16:19	1:30
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	14:41	0:56
T. Raddysh	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:46	0:00
M. Rempe	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	10:33	0:56
J. Parssinen	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	9:24	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:59	4:51
A. Fox	D	2	1	3	4	0	0	+3	0	23:41	4:50
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	4	25:34	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	+1	0	20:08	0:58
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	2	19:31	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:54	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	19	18	1	.947	59:40	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	2	14:49	3:43
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	3	0	3	-3	0	18:44	4:08
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	18:39	4:34
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-3	0	17:57	4:05
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:46	4:35
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:03	3:13
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	14:30	3:13
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:20	0:15
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:59	3:41
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:48	0:04
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:21	0:07
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	12:05	0:02
C. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:10	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:28	0:20
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	20:28	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	19:16	4:33
H. Brunicke	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:43	0:47
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:29	2:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	30	24	6	.800	59:37	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin13:05A. Lafrenière11:59M. Zibanejad11:30

Line 2C. Sheary12:36W. Cuylle12:21J. Miller12:12

Line 3S. Carrick12:11A. Edstrom11:18M. Rempe9:37

Line 4T. Raddysh10:40J. Parssinen9:01N. Laba9:39

Pair 1V. Gavrikov22:34A. Fox16:01

Pair 2U. Vaakanainen17:23B. Schneider16:23

Pair 3C. Soucy4:56W. Borgen13:59

PIT

Line 1B. Rust14:16S. Crosby13:25R. Rakell13:01

Line 2A. Mantha12:30J. Brazeau11:17E. Malkin12:48

Line 3B. Kindel10:54F. Hallander10:24T. Novak9:18

Line 4C. Dewar9:41B. Lizotte9:49N. Acciari8:51

Pair 1C. Jones15:43H. Brunicke16:56

Pair 2E. Karlsson12:47P. Wotherspoon17:09

Pair 3K. Letang10:49R. Shea17:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAlexis Lafrenière NYR Turns 24 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.2, PIT 3.0	NYR 6, PIT 1
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NYR 27.7, PIT 29.6	NYR 30, PIT 19
Win chance	NYR 52%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	1	1.17	1	34%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	1	1.10	0	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	3	0.86	0	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	2	0.76	0	27%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	4	0.86	1	27%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	1	0.60	0	12%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.1	0	0.46	0	9%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	1	0.74	0	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	4	0.87	3	14%	2
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	1.01	1	29%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	3	0.49	1	20%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	1	0.57	0	21%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.44	0	17%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	0	0.51	0	19%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.30	0	12%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.33	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.3	0	0.38	0	16%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.29	0	7%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.2	2	0.26	1	11%	1
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	1	0.34	1	13%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	4	0.26	2	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.1	0	0.22	0	7%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	0	0.20	0	11%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	1.0	0	0.26	0	3%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.9	2	0.24	1	10%	1
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.17	0	2%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	2	0.19	2	11%	0
PIT C. Jones	0.8	1	0.15	1	3%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.28	1	11%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.