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Game Recap
NYR5
PIT6
PIT beat NYR 6-5, and the chances backed it up: 5.99 expected goals to 2.29. PIT outshot NYR 34 to 20. A. Lafrenière led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Kindel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Skinner stopped 15 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 2:37PITA. Mantha0.12 xG
- 1st 6:05PITN. Acciari0.15 xG
- 2nd 12:59PITA. Mantha0.52 xG
- 2nd 18:28NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:20PITR. RakellPP0.32 xG
- 3rd 1:40PITN. Acciari0.22 xG
- 3rd 9:12NYRV. TrocheckSH0.23 xG
- 3rd 15:15NYRV. Gavrikov0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:28PITB. KindelEN0.74 xG
- 3rd 18:53NYRA. Lafrenière0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:49NYRW. Cuylle0.32 xG
Team Stats
NYRPIT
20Shots on goal34
2.29Expected goals5.99
42Shot attempts67
165v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play1/5
26Hits16
10Blocked shots12
12Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways11
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.29 xGPIT 5.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:40 | 2:57 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:47 | 2:54 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 2:52 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:02 | 1:14 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:37 | 0:20 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:23 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:34 | 0:02 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:16 | 1:16 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2:34 | 0:26 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:29 | 2:18 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:41 | 0:28 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:24 | 0:01 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:49 | 1:41 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 6:47 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 6:49 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:05 | 6:47 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 6:46 |
| B. Kindel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 2:33 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:31 | 0:55 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 2:31 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:31 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:38 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:53 | 7:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:03 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 2:20 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 20 | 15 | 5 | .750 | 59:45 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad13:45J. Miller13:21G. Perreault13:35
Line 2V. Trocheck13:58A. Lafrenière13:21W. Cuylle13:42
Line 3S. Carrick12:31J. Brodzinski9:17M. Rempe7:46
Line 4T. Raddysh8:38B. Othmann7:45N. Laba2:08
Pair 1W. Borgen16:04M. Robertson17:37
Pair 2V. Gavrikov13:11B. Schneider14:48
Pair 3U. Vaakanainen11:25S. Morrow12:53
PIT
Line 1T. Novak12:25E. Chinakhov12:45E. Malkin12:10
Line 2S. Crosby12:13R. Rakell11:16J. Brazeau10:56
Line 3C. Dewar10:05B. Lizotte10:55N. Acciari9:46
Line 4A. Mantha9:33B. Kindel9:04R. McGroarty8:21
Pair 2E. Karlsson13:58P. Wotherspoon14:19
Pair 3C. Clifton15:05I. Solovyov13:25
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.9, PIT 3.4 | NYR 5, PIT 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 24.5, PIT 30.4 | NYR 20, PIT 34 |
| Win chance | PIT 59% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.6 | 0 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 5 | 0.78 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.3 | 3 | 1.08 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.2 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 1.9 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.7 | 5 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.7 | 4 | 0.51 | 3 | 20% | 2 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kulak | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR S. Morrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT I. Solovyov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.