NYR beat TOR 4-1, with the chances close: 4.26 expected goals to 3.92. C. Kreider led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Matthews had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 34 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 11:44NYRA. Lafrenière0.18 xG
- 2nd 9:08NYRC. Kreider0.13 xG
- 3rd 3:40TORA. Matthews0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:00NYRC. KreiderEN0.94 xG
- 3rd 19:46NYRA. PanarinEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 4.26 xGTOR 3.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:16 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:05 | 3:16 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:37 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:45 | 3:23 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:50 | 3:23 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:44 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:44 | 0:37 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:37 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:44 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:55 | 3:23 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Ruhwedel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:33 | 4:02 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:52 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:44 | 3:59 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:54 | 4:05 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:10 | 1:55 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:58 | 4:11 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:57 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:01 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 1:36 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:21 | 4:22 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:10 | 1:40 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:20 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 58:30 | Loss |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.2, TOR 3.4 | NYR 4, TOR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.4, TOR 33.8 | NYR 29, TOR 35 |
| Win chance | TOR 53% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.2 | 9 | 1.06 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.4 | 7 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 5 | 1.19 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.5 | 4 | 0.76 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 1 | 1.05 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR C. Ruhwedel | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.