Game Recap: NYR 3, TOR 4, March 25, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalWed, Mar 25, 2026Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat NYR 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.65 expected goals to 2.98. NYR outshot TOR 43 to 18. A. Lafrenière led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Zibanejad had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Woll stopped 40 of 43.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	2	1	3
TOR	2	1	1	4

1st 5:15TORJ. McCabe0.03 xG
1st 12:08TORN. Robertson0.07 xG
2nd 5:41TORD. Joshua0.12 xG
2nd 10:16NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.15 xG
2nd 18:01NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.19 xG
3rd 11:57TORJ. Tavares0.06 xG
3rd 13:04NYRM. Zibanejad0.25 xG

Team Stats

NYRTOR

43Shots on goal18

2.98Expected goals1.65

78Shot attempts40

365v5 shots on goal16

2/4Power play0/2

25Hits25

12Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways13

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.98 xGTOR 1.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR43 on goal, 3 scored

TOR18 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	2	3	7	0	0	0	0	21:06	3:26
M. Zibanejad	C	2	0	2	10	2	0	0	0	22:12	3:24
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	18:37	3:22
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:41	0:38
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	-2	0	19:44	3:24
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	7	5	0	-1	0	15:54	0:14
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:45	0:16
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	7	1	-1	0	14:40	0:00
A. Sykora	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	13:33	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9:05	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:53	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:25	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	-2	0	25:53	3:29
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	22:06	0:11
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	2	21:17	0:16
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:48	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	16:34	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	18	14	4	.778	58:10	Loss
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Joshua	C	1	1	2	1	6	1	+1	2	14:31	1:26
M. Maccelli	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	14:28	1:40
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:19	2:30
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:29	2:02
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:00	1:30
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	20:35	1:53
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:07	2:20
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:25	2:25
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:47	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	9:02	0:00
J. McCabe	D	1	0	1	1	2	4	+2	2	24:54	0:14
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+2	0	22:16	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	18:44	2:09
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	-1	2	17:27	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	2	17:25	1:51
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	43	40	3	.930	60:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:51A. Lafrenière16:25G. Perreault15:48

Line 2W. Cuylle14:31A. Sykora13:18V. Trocheck13:06

Line 3T. Kartye13:23C. Sheary13:44J. Miller12:29

Line 4J. Brodzinski9:05J. Chmelar7:25T. Raddysh7:24

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:51A. Fox18:55

Pair 2M. Robertson15:29B. Schneider20:00

Pair 3W. Borgen14:49V. Iorio12:37

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander17:27E. Cowan16:47J. Tavares15:36

Line 2D. Joshua13:05M. Maccelli12:48B. Groulx13:38

Line 3M. Domi12:12N. Robertson12:15M. Knies11:13

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:53S. Lorentz8:25J. Quillan9:02

Pair 1M. Rielly16:35B. Carlo17:37

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson15:19J. McCabe20:07

Pair 3S. Benoit16:51T. Stecher15:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownWill Cuylle NYR Plays in his hometown7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, TOR 3.1	NYR 3, TOR 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	NYR 27.6, TOR 29.1	NYR 43, TOR 18
Win chance	TOR 50%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	1	1.18	0	38%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.8	10	0.98	2	30%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	2	0.90	1	33%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.3	7	0.76	3	26%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.3	4	1.01	1	29%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.85	0	26%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	1	0.82	0	27%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	7	0.47	0	20%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	1	0.89	2	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.47	0	9%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	3	0.43	1	19%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.7	1	0.53	1	18%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	0	0.47	0	9%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	0	0.47	0	17%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.39	0	11%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.55	2	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.50	1	14%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	1	0.28	0	7%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.4	1	0.28	0	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	2	0.38	0	15%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	0	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.15	0	3%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	1	0.34	1	5%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.1	3	0.24	0	10%	0
TOR B. Groulx	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.34	2	16%	1
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	2	0.26	0	12%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.11	0	2%	0
NYR V. Iorio	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	1	0.11	0	8%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.