Game Recap: NYR 5, UTA 3, January 16, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR5

FinalThu, Jan 16, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

NYR beat UTA 5-3, with the chances close: 3.65 expected goals to 3.00. M. Maccelli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Maccelli had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Shesterkin stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	2	0	3	5
UTA	2	1	0	3

1st 1:01UTAM. Maccelli0.15 xG
1st 3:42NYRA. Panarin0.14 xG
1st 8:12UTAM. Maccelli0.36 xG
1st 16:25NYRA. Kaliyev0.23 xG
2nd 0:57UTAL. CooleyPP0.14 xG
3rd 0:28NYRR. SmithSH0.03 xG
3rd 10:22NYRC. Kreider0.07 xG
3rd 19:22NYRA. PanarinEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

NYRUTA

25Shots on goal31

3.65Expected goals3.00

61Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play1/3

21Hits18

13Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways10

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.65 xGUTA 3.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR25 on goal, 5 scored

UTA31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	2	0	2	4	1	0	+2	0	18:32	3:53
S. Carrick	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	0	14:12	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	2	18:32	2:39
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	16:34	3:09
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	2	14:49	0:40
F. Chytil	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:17	0:51
A. Kaliyev	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	12:07	0:31
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+3	0	21:32	2:59
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:24	3:49
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	16:18	0:22
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	11:05	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:33	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:37	3:53
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	20:00	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	19:59	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:22	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	20:17	0:53
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:15	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Maccelli	LW	2	0	2	5	0	1	-1	0	14:06	2:00
B. Hayton	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	12:34	1:45
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	20:39	3:55
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	18:59	4:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	-2	0	18:42	3:11
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	16:14	0:06
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:39	3:47
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	7	1	-2	0	14:33	1:31
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:20	0:06
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	3	6	1	-1	0	13:05	1:31
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:29	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:51	0:06
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	2	22:16	3:53
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	20:45	0:06
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:49	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:54	0:21
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:02	1:37
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	11:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	24	20	4	.833	58:59	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVincent Trocheck UTA Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.2, UTA 3.1	NYR 5, UTA 3
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	NYR 29.6, UTA 30.5	NYR 25, UTA 31
Win chance	NYR 51%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	4	1.10	2	32%	2
UTA C. Keller	2.8	1	0.99	1	31%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.6	2	0.82	0	28%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.5	2	0.84	1	27%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	4	0.63	1	26%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.4	2	0.64	1	34%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.2	0	0.75	0	25%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	5	0.84	1	25%	0
NYR F. Chytil	1.8	3	0.42	1	18%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.8	1	0.48	0	19%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.8	2	0.53	1	20%	1
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.7	1	0.38	0	17%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	2	0.66	1	10%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	1	0.79	1	11%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	4	0.42	2	16%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	2	0.39	0	18%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.6	5	0.52	2	15%	2
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	0	0.33	0	17%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	3	0.36	0	18%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	2	0.33	0	6%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	0	0.31	0	7%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.3	2	0.22	1	10%	1
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	1	0.22	0	13%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.21	1	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.25	2	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	1	0.39	0	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	0	0.35	0	14%	0
UTA O. Maatta	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	0	0.23	1	3%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.24	1	4%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.18	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	0	0.14	1	2%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	0	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.