Game Recap: NYR 2, UTA 3, November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR2

FinalSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

UTA beat NYR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 2.91. UTA outshot NYR 34 to 22. V. Gavrikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Keller had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. K. Vejmelka stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	0	2
UTA	1	1	1	3

1st 10:08UTAJ. Peterka0.47 xG
1st 15:19NYRV. Gavrikov0.02 xG
2nd 8:07NYRA. Panarin0.15 xG
2nd 11:15UTAC. Keller0.54 xG
3rd 7:32UTAN. DeSimone0.05 xG

Team Stats

NYRUTA

22Shots on goal34

2.91Expected goals3.90

56Shot attempts56

165v5 shots on goal32

0/2Power play0/1

30Hits17

9Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways19

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.91 xGUTA 3.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR22 on goal, 2 scored

UTA32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	22:37	3:07
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	2	5	0	-1	0	22:06	3:06
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:29	2:20
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	18:47	1:41
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	16:02	2:19
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:37	1:40
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:30	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:20	0:53
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:22	0:54
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:55	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:22	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	7:59	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	23:20	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+2	0	27:23	4:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:20	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	16:34	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:22	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	2	14:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	34	31	3	.912	59:05	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	17:12	0:00
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	8	0	1	0	0	15:41	0:30
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	15:41	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	8:55	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	17:47	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:15	0:30
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:25	0:30
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	4	14:17	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:24	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:04	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:13	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:13	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	25:26	0:30
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:13	0:30
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:58	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:46A. Panarin18:01A. Lafrenière15:12

Line 2N. Laba14:49T. Raddysh13:28C. Sheary13:57

Line 3M. Zibanejad14:14J. Brodzinski14:27W. Cuylle11:51

Line 4S. Carrick8:22A. Edstrom8:55J. Parssinen7:59

Pair 1V. Gavrikov22:21A. Fox21:01

Pair 2C. Soucy16:19B. Schneider15:55

Pair 3M. Robertson14:20S. Morrow14:58

UTA

Line 1C. Keller14:41B. Hayton14:53N. Schmaltz14:19

Line 2L. Crouse14:16J. McBain14:16J. Peterka15:41

Line 3D. Guenther13:26L. Cooley13:58M. Carcone13:36

Line 4K. Stenlund10:23B. Tanev9:04K. Yamamoto8:55

Pair 1M. Sergachev20:25N. DeSimone19:09

Pair 2N. Schmidt17:44J. Marino17:56

Pair 3I. Cole17:58D. Simashev12:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVincent Trocheck UTA Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, UTA 3.1	NYR 2, UTA 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NYR 24.2, UTA 30.0	NYR 22, UTA 34
Win chance	UTA 55%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.1	2	0.79	0	28%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	8	0.95	1	29%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.5	1	1.06	1	32%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	1	0.85	0	26%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.80	1	27%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	2	0.81	0	28%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	4	0.67	1	24%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.55	0	22%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	2	0.83	1	14%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	1.9	2	0.69	1	24%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	2	0.62	0	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	2	0.37	0	19%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	1	0.43	0	16%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	1	0.38	0	18%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.6	2	0.53	0	20%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	3	0.35	1	7%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.31	2	7%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	1	0.32	0	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.30	0	13%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.26	0	7%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	2	0.23	1	5%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.29	1	12%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.1	3	0.31	0	12%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.31	1	13%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.21	0	7%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.0	1	0.10	0	3%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	2	0.28	0	13%	0
UTA J. Marino	1.0	1	0.33	0	4%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.8	0	0.12	0	5%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	1	0.17	0	9%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	0	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.