Game Recap: NYR 2, VGK 3, November 18, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR2

FinalTue, Nov 18, 2025Every game that night

VGK3

VGK beat NYR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 2.10. T. Hertl led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Schmid stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	1	1	2
VGK	1	1	1	3

1st 11:40VGKB. BowmanPP0.34 xG
2nd 3:23VGKB. Hutton0.07 xG
2nd 8:56NYRJ. Brodzinski0.33 xG
3rd 7:18VGKS. TheodorePP0.04 xG
3rd 17:17NYRV. Trocheck0.14 xG

Team Stats

NYRVGK

19Shots on goal26

2.10Expected goals2.98

56Shot attempts57

125v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play2/2

34Hits20

17Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways15

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.10 xGVGK 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR19 on goal, 2 scored

VGK25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	20:21	1:24
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	20:14	1:00
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	0	19:52	1:02
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	18:57	0:55
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:13	0:32
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	20:49	1:03
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:27	1:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:22	0:03
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:22	0:57
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:43	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:36	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	6:48	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	26:25	1:30
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:35	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	18:03	0:04
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	17:05	0:30
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	16:58	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	26	23	3	.885	57:38	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	0	2	2	2	4	1	+1	0	15:01	1:35
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	18:07	1:29
B. Bowman	RW	1	0	1	1	1	2	-1	0	17:02	1:35
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	14:57	1:35
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	11:38	0:34
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	19:52	1:35
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:43	0:34
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:03	0:34
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	14:34	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:36	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:28	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	22:49	0:40
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:48	0:34
B. Hutton	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:32	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	-1	0	23:52	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	19:05	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	15:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	19	17	2	.895	59:48	Win
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad17:24J. Miller16:52W. Cuylle14:05

Line 2V. Trocheck14:47A. Panarin16:23A. Lafrenière15:15

Line 3C. Sheary12:25N. Laba14:39J. Brodzinski15:41

Line 4S. Carrick7:36T. Raddysh8:09J. Parssinen6:48

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:36A. Fox22:33

Pair 2C. Soucy17:25W. Borgen15:26

Pair 3M. Robertson13:35B. Schneider15:46

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev17:09J. Eichel16:53B. Bowman15:23

Line 2M. Marner15:16P. Dorofeyev13:10T. Hertl13:14

Line 3B. Saad12:47B. Howden13:05R. Smith12:25

Line 4C. Sissons10:04C. Reinhardt10:07K. Kolesar10:15

Pair 1B. McNabb20:22S. Theodore19:02

Pair 2N. Hanifin17:57Z. Whitecloud17:58

Pair 3K. Korczak15:50B. Hutton15:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPavel Dorofeyev NYR First game back in Las Vegas, his team until Jun 20261 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, VGK 3.1	NYR 2, VGK 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	NYR 24.7, VGK 30.4	NYR 19, VGK 26
Win chance	VGK 58%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	5	1.15	0	32%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.2	4	0.71	1	34%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.7	2	0.82	2	30%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.7	1	1.03	1	31%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	2	0.78	0	26%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	0	0.92	1	28%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	2	0.45	1	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	2	0.60	1	8%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	2	0.53	1	21%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	1	1.21	1	29%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	1.8	2	0.61	1	21%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.8	4	0.77	0	13%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	1	0.53	0	20%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	3	0.40	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.62	0	22%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	1	0.44	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.43	0	19%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	1	0.28	1	12%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.2	1	0.29	0	6%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	1	0.18	1	4%	1
NYR C. Sheary	1.1	0	0.30	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	1	0.22	0	6%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.27	0	13%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	2	0.25	1	9%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.19	0	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.25	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.7	0	0.11	0	4%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	2	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.