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Game Recap
NYR7
WSH3
NYR beat WSH 7-3, with the chances close: 3.50 expected goals to 3.50. WSH outshot NYR 32 to 21. T. Raddysh led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Chisholm had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. I. Shesterkin stopped 29 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| WSH | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 14:57NYRT. Raddysh0.15 xG
- 2nd 0:23WSHJ. Carlson0.05 xG
- 2nd 8:40WSHD. StromePP0.55 xG
- 2nd 11:14NYRW. CuyllePP0.35 xG
- 2nd 12:11WSHA. Protas0.15 xG
- 3rd 8:10NYRT. Raddysh0.08 xG
- 3rd 9:18NYRA. Lafrenière0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:43NYRV. Trocheck0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:44NYRA. PanarinEN0.82 xG
- 3rd 18:09NYRV. Trocheck0.18 xG
Team Stats
NYRWSH
21Shots on goal32
3.50Expected goals3.50
55Shot attempts70
175v5 shots on goal21
1/4Power play1/3
18Hits13
18Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways11
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.50 xGWSH 3.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 4:01 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:56 | 3:58 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:22 | 4:03 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 4:11 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:20 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:10 | 2:19 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:16 | 2:14 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:56 | 2:04 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:04 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:02 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:10 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:04 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 2:10 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 17:54 | 0:57 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:57 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:00 | 0:57 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:29 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:29 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:27 | 2:10 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:14 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:47 | 1:14 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:14 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:29 |
| J. Carlson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:18 | 1:14 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:57 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:29 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:01 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:29 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 20 | 14 | 6 | .700 | 58:17 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1A. Panarin16:22A. Lafrenière15:33M. Zibanejad15:16
Line 2V. Trocheck14:10G. Perreault12:52W. Cuylle12:44
Line 3T. Raddysh13:31N. Laba11:52J. Brodzinski10:51
Line 4M. Rempe7:59B. Othmann7:55S. Carrick8:53
Pair 1B. Schneider18:33V. Gavrikov16:10
Pair 3S. Morrow15:04M. Robertson14:44
WSH
Line 1D. Strome15:54A. Protas14:44R. Leonard15:37
Line 2A. Ovechkin14:34C. McMichael13:22J. Sourdif14:04
Line 3N. Dowd12:26A. Beauvillier13:24E. Frank13:13
Line 4S. Milano6:38B. Duhaime7:09H. Lapierre6:50
Pair 1J. Chychrun19:14M. Roy18:20
Pair 2J. Carlson15:40M. Fehérváry17:44
Pair 3T. Riemsdyk13:26D. Chisholm14:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.6, WSH 3.0 | NYR 7, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 25.5, WSH 28.7 | NYR 21, WSH 32 |
| Win chance | WSH 56% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.2 | 4 | 1.09 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 0 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 2 | 0.80 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 3 | 20% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR S. Morrow | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 3 | 9% | 2 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 0.9 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.