Game Recap: NYR 3, WSH 6, December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

WSH6

WSH beat NYR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 2.54. T. Wilson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Lafrenière had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Lindgren stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	1	3
WSH	1	2	3	6

1st 12:27WSHA. Beauvillier0.18 xG
1st 19:20NYRV. Trocheck0.23 xG
2nd 7:33WSHT. Wilson0.25 xG
2nd 11:12WSHJ. SourdifPP0.23 xG
2nd 15:17NYRA. FoxPP0.05 xG
3rd 13:34WSHA. Protas0.09 xG
3rd 16:37WSHT. Wilson0.15 xG
3rd 18:16NYRB. Schneider0.08 xG
3rd 19:11WSHJ. SourdifEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

NYRWSH

25Shots on goal27

2.54Expected goals4.23

64Shot attempts69

225v5 shots on goal20

1/1Power play1/3

21Hits21

27Blocked shots21

11Penalty minutes7

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.54 xGWSH 4.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR25 on goal, 3 scored

WSH27 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	-1	0	19:41	1:17
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	2	21:51	1:17
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	-2	0	21:01	1:17
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:16	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	6	2	1	-1	0	20:14	1:17
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	3	6	-1	0	18:08	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:07	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	11:47	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	7	11:18	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	9:16	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	6:39	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	5:45	0:00
A. Fox	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	-1	2	21:13	1:17
B. Schneider	D	1	0	1	1	2	3	-1	0	20:57	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	24:07	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	-2	0	20:33	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:29	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	26	21	5	.808	59:10	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	2	1	3	4	4	0	+3	5	19:26	3:30
C. McMichael	LW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	20:06	1:34
J. Sourdif	C	2	0	2	2	3	1	+3	0	18:46	1:34
A. Protas	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	15:07	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	18:10	5:55
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:10	1:03
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:05	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:06	4:17
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:54	4:17
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:36	1:42
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	9:55	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:42	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	18:32	0:01
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	19:38	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	22:55	1:38
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+2	0	21:49	4:21
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	0	19:53	0:03
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	11:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	25	22	3	.880	59:35	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin17:09M. Zibanejad16:03W. Cuylle13:39

Line 2V. Trocheck16:52A. Lafrenière17:58G. Perreault15:11

Line 3S. Carrick11:18J. Brodzinski11:47M. Rempe9:16

Line 4T. Raddysh14:06C. Sheary6:05N. Laba5:08

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:22A. Fox18:46

Pair 2W. Borgen17:52B. Schneider17:47

Pair 3C. Soucy13:08M. Robertson14:58

WSH

Line 1C. McMichael17:57J. Sourdif16:22T. Wilson14:04

Line 2A. Ovechkin11:50D. Strome13:17A. Protas13:43

Line 3A. Beauvillier13:55N. Dowd14:05R. Leonard9:43

Line 4B. Duhaime9:55E. Frank11:54H. Lapierre7:42

Pair 1M. Roy19:08J. Chychrun17:03

Pair 2J. Carlson19:15R. Sandin17:20

Pair 3M. Fehérváry18:54D. McIlrath11:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, WSH 3.1	NYR 3, WSH 6
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	NYR 25.3, WSH 29.1	NYR 25, WSH 27
Win chance	WSH 56%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	4	0.92	1	37%	0
NYR A. Panarin	3.1	3	1.09	2	33%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	3.0	3	0.64	0	20%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	0	0.82	1	27%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	4	0.81	3	31%	2
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	1	0.81	1	27%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	2	0.39	1	17%	1
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	2	0.50	1	16%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.1	1	0.70	2	23%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	1	0.55	0	22%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	3	0.56	2	21%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.0	0	0.93	0	27%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	0	0.58	0	11%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	6	0.54	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	1	0.81	2	14%	1
WSH J. Sourdif	1.5	2	0.35	2	14%	2
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.38	0	9%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	2	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	0	0.30	0	13%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.3	1	0.41	0	16%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.26	1	7%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.29	1	5%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	0	0.32	1	15%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	2	0.28	0	7%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	2	0.29	2	5%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	2	0.17	0	7%	0
NYR G. Perreault	0.9	2	0.27	1	11%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.17	0	6%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	0	0.21	0	6%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.5	1	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.