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Game Recap
NYR1
FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026Every game that night
WSH3

WSH beat NYR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 2.65. L. Thompson stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR1001
WSH0213
  1. 1st 10:17NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.19 xG
  2. 2nd 6:08WSHT. Liljegren0.03 xG
  3. 2nd 17:38WSHB. Jenner0.18 xG
  4. 3rd 19:59WSHT. WilsonEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

NYRWSH
22Shots on goal27
2.65Expected goals3.93
49Shot attempts49
155v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/3
35Hits22
9Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways19
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.65 xGWSH 3.93 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYR goal, 10:17WSH goal, 6:08WSH goal, 17:38WSH goal, 19:59

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR21 on goal, 1 scored
WSH26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. MillerC011010-2220:553:12
P. DorofeyevRW011410-2019:333:44
A. LafrenièreLW101100-1018:463:44
M. ZibanejadC000260-1019:023:44
W. CuylleLW0001400016:381:53
G. PerreaultRW000310-1016:281:09
T. KartyeLW000120-1015:260:00
N. LabaC0001400013:420:00
E. TolvanenRW0002010011:490:57
C. BeaudoinC000111-1210:560:00
J. ChmelarRW000020-109:380:00
O. BjorkstrandRW000100-109:180:57
A. FoxD000002-2223:113:44
V. GavrikovD000311-2020:290:00
M. PetterssonD0001510019:110:12
S. DurziD0000310018:521:09
B. SchneiderD0000220017:370:00
A. SmitsD000120-1014:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Shesterkin14131.92928:20
D. Garand12111.91729:45Loss

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. WilsonRW101330+1021:412:42
D. StromeC011400+1014:203:35
B. JennerC101301+2213:370:00
R. LeonardRW011220+2213:262:26
A. TuchRW000200+1020:252:56
P. DuboisC000122+1020:023:36
A. ProtasLW0001000015:350:00
J. SourdifC000240+1014:070:07
A. OvechkinLW0002200013:574:32
J. KyrouRW0000000012:052:18
I. ProtasLW0000000010:571:28
A. BeauvillierRW0000000010:190:00
V. DesharnaisD011043+2021:150:00
T. LiljegrenD101201+1019:140:00
J. ChychrunD000311+1026:533:44
M. FehérváryD000044+2023:570:17
C. HutsonD0002000018:182:19
D. McIlrathD000000024:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson22211.95560:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1J. Miller14:43T. Kartye13:42P. Dorofeyev13:54
Line 2A. Lafrenière13:07G. Perreault13:27M. Zibanejad12:15
Line 3W. Cuylle11:50N. Laba10:47E. Tolvanen9:24
Line 4J. Chmelar9:38C. Beaudoin10:11O. Bjorkstrand8:21
Pair 1V. Gavrikov17:30A. Fox17:13
Pair 2M. Pettersson15:56S. Durzi15:22
Pair 3A. Smits14:24B. Schneider14:16

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson14:50P. Dubois14:31A. Tuch13:01
Line 2B. Jenner12:16J. Sourdif12:51R. Leonard11:00
Line 3D. Strome10:45A. Beauvillier10:19A. Ovechkin9:25
Line 4J. Kyrou9:47I. Protas9:29A. Protas13:06
Pair 1J. Chychrun20:57T. Liljegren17:15
Pair 2V. Desharnais16:39M. Fehérváry18:51
Pair 3D. McIlrath4:59C. Hutson15:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 21 overs hit (43%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5-110-1052Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5-104-1102Under
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+100-1103Over
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+116-1352Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-125+1084Over
WSH A. Beauvillier1.5+115-1500Under
NYR A. Fox1.5+100-1280Under
NYR A. Lafrenière1.5-190+1401Under
WSH A. Protas1.5-105-1201Under
WSH C. Hutson1.5-120+1102Over
WSH D. Strome1.5-115-1054Over
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5+120-1402Over
NYR G. Perreault1.5+116-1403Over
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-160+1460Under
NYR J. Miller1.5-130+1200Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.5+110-1501Under
WSH P. Dubois1.5-110-1151Under
WSH R. Leonard1.5-130+1002Over
WSH T. Wilson1.5-160+1403Over
NYR V. Gavrikov1.5+140-1903Over
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-144+1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 2.8, WSH 3.0NYR 1, WSH 3
Total goals5.84
Shots on goalNYR 24.7, WSH 27.3NYR 22, WSH 27
Win chanceWSH 53%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH A. Ovechkin2.820.79033%0
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.740.67131%0
WSH A. Tuch2.720.79031%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.530.58018%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.520.89028%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.210.72125%1
WSH J. Kyrou2.100.61024%0
WSH B. Jenner2.030.49121%1
WSH R. Leonard2.020.50120%0
WSH T. Wilson2.030.75128%1
NYR J. Miller1.900.79124%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.810.41018%0
WSH A. Protas1.810.60021%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.700.34015%0
WSH D. Strome1.640.73123%0
NYR E. Tolvanen1.620.36016%0
WSH P. Dubois1.610.65020%0
NYR A. Fox1.500.81014%0
NYR G. Perreault1.430.45017%0
WSH C. Hutson1.320.3607%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.320.44017%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.330.3409%0
WSH I. Protas1.300.51015%0
NYR T. Kartye1.310.39015%0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.210.31013%0
NYR S. Durzi1.200.3608%0
WSH T. Liljegren1.220.2215%1
NYR B. Schneider1.100.2005%0
NYR N. Laba1.010.29011%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.900.2806%0
NYR J. Chmelar0.800.19010%0
NYR M. Pettersson0.810.2404%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.700.1212%0
NYR A. Smits0.610.1204%0
WSH D. McIlrath0.400.0701%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.