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Game Recap
OTT3
ANA4
ANA beat OTT 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.86 expected goals to 4.10. F. Vatrano led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Tkachuk had 12 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. L. Dostal stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| ANA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 14:45ANAF. VatranoPP0.16 xG
- 1st 17:36OTTB. TkachukPP0.13 xG
- 1st 19:54ANAJ. LaCombe0.12 xG
- 2nd 0:37OTTB. Tkachuk0.14 xG
- 3rd 4:37ANAF. Vatrano0.13 xG
- 3rd 5:46OTTN. Cousins0.36 xG
Team Stats
OTTANA
31Shots on goal34
4.10Expected goals2.86
70Shot attempts65
185v5 shots on goal24
1/4Power play1/3
22Hits32
19Blocked shots17
10Penalty minutes12
16Giveaways21
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 4.10 xGANA 2.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 5:26 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:50 | 5:27 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 5:24 |
| N. Cousins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:52 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:38 | 1:35 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:50 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:51 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:11 | 0:54 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:43 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:57 | 5:23 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 64:44 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:34 | 3:15 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:03 | 2:55 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:03 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 3:23 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:16 | 1:40 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:04 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:48 | 1:47 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:29 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:43 | 1:16 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:04 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:22 | 3:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:38 | 1:41 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:04 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:04 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.2, ANA 3.0 | OTT 3, ANA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 32.1, ANA 27.3 | OTT 31, ANA 34 |
| Win chance | OTT 52% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 12 | 0.92 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.2 | 3 | 0.71 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.4 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.2 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 9 | 0.85 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.8 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.