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Game Recap
OTT3
FinalThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night
ANA2

OTT beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.34 expected goals to 2.37. D. Cozens had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT1113
ANA0202
  1. 1st 16:39OTTN. Cousins0.14 xG
  2. 2nd 13:08ANAB. Sennecke0.33 xG
  3. 2nd 14:34ANAM. McTavish0.18 xG
  4. 2nd 19:02OTTS. PintoPP0.24 xG
  5. 3rd 18:02OTTD. Batherson0.13 xG

Team Stats

OTTANA
25Shots on goal25
3.34Expected goals2.37
59Shot attempts54
185v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play0/2
29Hits24
11Blocked shots20
4Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.34 xGANA 2.37 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTT goal, 16:39ANA goal, 13:08ANA goal, 14:34OTT goal, 19:02OTT goal, 18:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT25 on goal, 3 scored
ANA25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. PintoC1014210019:361:40
D. BathersonRW101301+1018:433:41
D. CozensC011630-1017:433:29
D. PerronLW011030+1015:152:11
N. CousinsC101120028:060:00
S. HallidayC011001005:282:01
T. StützleC000041+1022:043:48
C. GirouxRW0002200020:413:31
M. AmadioRW0001200017:360:33
L. EllerC000100-1015:300:17
F. ZetterlundLW0000210013:492:07
H. HodgsonRW000030-107:140:00
J. SandersonD0112120224:162:51
J. SpenceD011000+1019:223:03
N. JensenD0111000014:370:00
A. ZubD000021-1021:320:18
T. KlevenD0003320020:340:00
N. MatinpaloD0001010013:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark25232.92059:57Win
L. Meriläinen000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TerryRW0112010019:472:04
L. CarlssonC011301+1219:341:56
C. GauthierLW011210+1018:251:53
B. SenneckeRW101110+1217:182:02
C. KreiderLW0112010016:392:18
M. McTavishC1014210214:461:48
A. KillornLW000200-1015:301:42
R. StromeC000000-1013:181:53
F. VatranoRW000102-1012:510:05
N. NesterenkoC0001300011:530:04
R. JohnstonLW0001200010:460:00
J. HarkinsC0000300010:020:04
J. LaCombeD0000010023:072:09
O. ZellwegerD0005030021:071:51
J. TroubaD0000320020:260:05
D. HellesonD000023+1018:210:00
R. GudasD0001730017:020:06
I. MooreD000002-1015:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Mrazek25223.88057:26Loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1T. Stützle15:34D. Batherson14:20D. Perron12:55
Line 2M. Amadio14:35S. Pinto14:21C. Giroux12:45
Line 3L. Eller13:25D. Cozens14:07F. Zetterlund11:42
Line 4H. Hodgson7:14N. Cousins8:06S. Halliday3:27
Pair 1J. Sanderson18:07A. Zub17:01
Pair 2T. Kleven18:13J. Spence16:08
Pair 3N. Jensen13:38N. Matinpalo11:47

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier13:11B. Sennecke13:26L. Carlsson13:08
Line 2C. Kreider11:47T. Terry13:44M. McTavish12:58
Line 3A. Killorn11:40F. Vatrano10:57R. Strome10:54
Line 4R. Johnston10:30J. Harkins9:55N. Nesterenko10:07
Pair 1J. Trouba17:04O. Zellweger18:22
Pair 2D. Helleson15:40J. LaCombe15:52
Pair 3R. Gudas14:22I. Moore13:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.2, ANA 2.9OTT 3, ANA 2
Total goals6.15
Shots on goalOTT 29.3, ANA 27.4OTT 25, ANA 25
Win chanceOTT 55%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.320.83130%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.520.63111%0
ANA T. Terry2.420.82128%0
OTT D. Batherson2.330.83127%1
OTT T. Stützle2.300.95029%0
OTT S. Pinto2.240.69128%1
OTT D. Cozens2.260.65123%0
ANA C. Kreider2.220.68135%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.130.83128%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.900.41018%0
OTT C. Giroux1.820.70022%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.810.36019%0
ANA M. McTavish1.840.56120%1
ANA O. Zellweger1.750.3108%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.700.53011%0
ANA A. Killorn1.720.52022%0
ANA B. Sennecke1.610.61121%1
OTT D. Perron1.600.56122%0
ANA J. Trouba1.500.3407%0
ANA R. Strome1.400.44014%0
OTT J. Spence1.400.4316%0
OTT T. Kleven1.330.1804%0
OTT M. Amadio1.310.45021%0
OTT A. Zub1.200.3206%0
OTT L. Eller1.110.30012%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.110.30012%0
ANA D. Helleson1.100.3107%0
OTT N. Cousins1.110.26111%1
OTT N. Matinpalo1.110.1603%0
ANA I. Moore0.900.2206%0
OTT N. Jensen0.910.2314%0
OTT H. Hodgson0.900.2309%0
ANA R. Gudas0.810.1703%0
ANA J. Harkins0.700.1307%0
ANA R. Johnston0.410.1304%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.