Game Recap: OTT 3, BOS 2 (OT), November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT3

Final/OTSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

BOS2

OTT beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.93 expected goals to 1.76. OTT outshot BOS 34 to 16. B. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Tkachuk had 12 shots on goal against our projection of 3.7. L. Ullmark stopped 14 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	1	1	0	1	3
BOS	0	2	0	0	2

1st 19:52OTTJ. NorrisPP0.12 xG
2nd 4:51BOSP. Zacha0.07 xG
2nd 5:06BOSB. Marchand0.51 xG
2nd 17:16OTTM. Amadio0.02 xG
OT 0:21OTTB. Tkachuk0.10 xG

Team Stats

OTTBOS

34Shots on goal16

2.93Expected goals1.76

66Shot attempts37

255v5 shots on goal11

1/3Power play0/2

35Hits42

13Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways21

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.93 xGBOS 1.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT34 on goal, 3 scored

BOS16 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	12	8	0	0	2	20:10	3:45
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	20:38	3:47
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	18:37	3:44
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:26	1:40
N. Gregor	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:00	0:00
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	22:15	3:57
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:11	1:41
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	17:15	1:28
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:22	1:38
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	10:07	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	8:34	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:24	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	23:52	1:27
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	24:07	3:58
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	21:15	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:25	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	13:44	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	16	14	2	.875	60:21	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:58	3:26
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	20:04	3:28
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	0	18:33	2:46
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	13:43	0:59
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	18:09	2:48
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:49	0:56
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:44	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:34	0:00
T. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	12:30	0:39
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:20	0:09
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:08	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:57	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:54	0:49
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	1	4	2	0	2	18:11	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	24:22	3:27
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	5	5	+1	0	21:54	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:23	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:25	0:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	34	31	3	.912	60:21	OT loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLinus Ullmark OTT Faces BOS, his team until May 202414 saves on 16, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, BOS 3.2	OTT 3, BOS 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	OTT 30.4, BOS 27.8	OTT 34, BOS 16
Win chance	BOS 56%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.1	2	1.19	1	44%	0
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	12	0.79	2	29%	1
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	3	0.91	1	30%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.69	1	23%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	3	0.50	1	11%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	0	0.82	0	24%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.1	3	0.59	1	27%	1
OTT C. Giroux	2.1	2	0.69	0	23%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	2	0.71	0	26%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	1	0.69	1	22%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	3	0.42	0	8%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.7	0	0.62	0	22%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.7	2	0.22	1	11%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	0	0.68	0	13%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.6	1	0.29	0	14%	0
BOS T. Johnson	1.6	0	0.46	0	19%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	0	0.40	1	21%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	1	0.35	1	17%	1
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	2	0.46	1	9%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	1	0.39	0	17%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	2	0.33	0	15%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.38	1	12%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	0	0.22	0	9%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.16	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	2	0.33	0	15%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	2	0.25	0	5%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.25	0	7%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.14	0	2%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	1.0	1	0.14	0	6%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.37	0	9%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	1	0.40	0	14%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	0	0.26	0	13%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.7	0	0.19	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.