Game Recap: OTT 1, BUF 5, November 5, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT1

FinalTue, Nov 5, 2024Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat OTT 5-1, with the chances close: 3.58 expected goals to 3.51. J. Peterka led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Thompson had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. U. Luukkonen stopped 37 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	1	0	1
BUF	1	1	3	5

1st 6:37BUFJ. PeterkaPP0.07 xG
2nd 0:17BUFB. Byram0.10 xG
2nd 7:31OTTR. Greig0.54 xG
3rd 0:21BUFB. Byram0.04 xG
3rd 0:37BUFT. Thompson0.66 xG
3rd 12:08BUFJ. PeterkaPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

OTTBUF

38Shots on goal34

3.51Expected goals3.58

67Shot attempts55

305v5 shots on goal25

0/3Power play2/4

35Hits37

11Blocked shots11

21Penalty minutes21

7Giveaways12

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.51 xGBUF 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT38 on goal, 1 scored

BUF32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	-1	0	17:10	2:56
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:09	2:56
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	0	6	1	-1	11	14:48	1:46
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:04	2:47
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:09	3:03
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:08	3:09
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	15:01	2:46
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	14:38	3:09
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	14:04	0:54
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	2	13:19	0:07
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:56	0:08
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:03	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	25:27	3:05
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	22:12	3:06
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	19:39	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	16:53	0:01
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	16:47	0:07
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	34	29	5	.853	60:00	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Peterka	RW	2	1	3	6	0	0	+1	2	15:57	3:47
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	11	1	0	+1	0	16:21	3:49
R. McLeod	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	0	14:43	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:10	3:37
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	5	15:28	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:20	1:20
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	0	15:45	3:49
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	14:35	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	14:16	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:44	1:22
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:30	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	10:14	1:32
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	4	2	1	+1	0	22:33	3:47
B. Byram	D	2	0	2	2	1	0	+1	0	22:31	1:20
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	22:39	1:22
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	18:52	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	17:56	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	38	37	1	.974	60:00	Win
D. Levi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20252 SOG
Old teamJosh Norris BUF Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.2, BUF 3.3	OTT 1, BUF 5
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	OTT 30.2, BUF 30.0	OTT 38, BUF 34
Win chance	BUF 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	0	0.90	1	32%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	11	1.02	2	41%	1
BUF J. Peterka	2.9	6	0.72	3	29%	2
BUF A. Tuch	2.8	3	0.96	1	32%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.6	2	0.66	0	24%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	4	0.80	2	18%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	2	0.80	0	26%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	1	0.59	1	24%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	2	0.92	1	27%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.1	3	0.68	0	31%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.1	2	0.82	0	27%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	6	0.52	0	12%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	1	0.47	0	9%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.8	4	0.27	0	13%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	1	0.54	0	20%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.6	2	0.43	0	21%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.6	1	0.39	1	16%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.4	1	0.29	0	14%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.4	2	0.19	0	6%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	0	0.48	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	0	0.39	0	15%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.3	3	0.35	1	16%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	0	0.40	2	18%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	3	0.24	0	9%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.54	2	14%	2
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.16	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	1	0.28	0	10%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.9	4	0.14	0	7%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.4	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.