Game Recap: OTT 2, BUF 3, March 25, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT2

FinalTue, Mar 25, 2025Every game that night

BUF3

BUF beat OTT 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.25 expected goals to 2.88. OTT outshot BUF 32 to 24. B. Tkachuk had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Reimer stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	1	0	2
BUF	1	1	1	3

1st 1:35OTTB. TkachukPP0.14 xG
1st 18:31BUFJ. Quinn0.15 xG
2nd 7:39OTTD. PerronPP0.15 xG
2nd 12:59BUFJ. Bernard-Docker0.03 xG
3rd 1:23BUFT. Thompson0.13 xG

Team Stats

OTTBUF

32Shots on goal24

2.88Expected goals1.25

75Shot attempts41

235v5 shots on goal23

2/4Power play0/1

25Hits16

13Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways19

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.88 xGBUF 1.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT32 on goal, 2 scored

BUF22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	9	3	0	0	0	19:55	3:01
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	5	2	0	-2	0	18:48	2:50
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:33	2:41
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	-1	0	17:25	2:32
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	17:18	2:56
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	2	15:44	2:27
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	23:10	3:12
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	5	5	0	-1	0	18:09	2:43
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:59	0:10
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:11	0:05
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:37	0:08
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:36	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:53	2:29
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	22:25	3:13
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:44	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	16:27	0:02
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	16:19	0:11
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	24	21	3	.875	57:30	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:47	0:28
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	17:10	1:13
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	16:31	0:41
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:23	0:47
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	15:49	1:27
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:17	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	10:47	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	17:04	0:33
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	16:42	1:32
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:41	1:19
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:26	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	4	5	4	+1	0	23:33	1:39
J. Bernard-Docker	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:08	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	21:52	0:21
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	20:49	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:32	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20251 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.2, BUF 3.4	OTT 2, BUF 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	OTT 27.9, BUF 29.4	OTT 32, BUF 24
Win chance	BUF 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.2	9	0.77	1	30%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	3	0.99	1	41%	1
BUF J. Peterka	2.6	2	0.83	1	30%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	4	0.76	1	16%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	0	0.83	0	32%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	1	0.67	0	26%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.54	0	11%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	2	0.64	0	10%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	2	0.59	1	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	5	0.73	1	24%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.8	2	0.38	0	19%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	1	0.53	0	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.8	2	0.95	0	26%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	0	0.70	1	23%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	1	0.58	1	22%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.6	2	0.68	1	24%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	5	0.40	0	16%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	0	0.47	1	19%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.5	3	0.46	1	17%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	3	0.42	1	16%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	0	0.41	0	7%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	1	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	0	0.42	0	19%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	2	0.46	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.31	0	7%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.0	0	0.14	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.29	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.30	1	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	2	0.14	0	5%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.21	1	13%	0
BUF J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	1	0.15	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.