Game Recap: OTT 2, BUF 1, November 4, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT2

FinalWed, Nov 4, 2026Every game that night

BUF1

OTT beat BUF 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.86 expected goals to 2.06. T. Stützle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Ersson stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	0	2	2
BUF	0	1	0	1

2nd 14:00BUFP. Krebs0.16 xG
3rd 11:33OTTS. Pinto0.15 xG
3rd 16:51OTTM. Amadio0.14 xG

Team Stats

OTTBUF

30Shots on goal24

2.86Expected goals2.06

54Shot attempts50

255v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/2

23Hits24

16Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways12

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.86 xGBUF 2.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT29 on goal, 2 scored

BUF24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	23:03	2:56
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	21:41	1:22
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	16:19	1:23
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	15:55	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:44	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	20:13	2:35
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:17	2:36
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:11	2:40
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:19	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:28	1:04
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	5:54	0:00
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	4:47	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	24:18	1:28
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	25:32	2:32
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	21:57	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	20:58	0:00
C. Yakemchuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:57	1:24
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	24	23	1	.958	59:12	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	20:16	3:30
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:34	3:25
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:32	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	21:27	3:25
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:32	3:39
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	16:45	0:15
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:16	0:30
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:16	0:37
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	11:26	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:21	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:40	0:07
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	8:41	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	26:27	0:34
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	24:57	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	24:23	3:26
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:48	0:32
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:09	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	30	28	2	.933	58:25	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1T. Stützle15:55F. Zetterlund14:47N. Cousins11:03

Line 2D. Batherson15:15P. Tomasino13:56S. Pinto15:43

Line 3C. Giroux13:27M. Amadio14:36D. Cozens13:31

Line 4S. Blais5:54H. Hodgson4:47S. Halliday9:24

Pair 1T. Chabot20:09J. Spence19:16

Pair 2A. Zub18:13J. Sanderson18:58

Pair 3C. Yakemchuk11:33N. Matinpalo11:38

BUF

Line 1N. Ostlund16:27J. Quinn15:18J. Doan14:46

Line 2P. Krebs13:32T. Thompson14:34Z. Benson15:33

Line 3J. Zucker12:46R. McLeod11:23J. Norris10:33

Line 4S. Carrick7:53B. Malenstyn8:02T. Kozak7:48

Pair 1O. Power23:40O. Zellweger18:26

Pair 2M. Samuelsson20:16R. Dahlin20:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+110	-130	2	Under
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	+146	-180	2	Under
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	+116	-140	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	-110	+100	1	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	-105	-115	1	Under
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	+135	-155	5	Over
BUF Z. Benson	2.5	+142	-160	3	Over
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	+115	-140	3	Over
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	-130	+104	2	Over
BUF J. Doan	1.5	+100	-125	3	Over
OTT J. Sanderson	1.5	-190	+145	1	Under
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	+101	-130	1	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	-135	+113	4	Over
BUF O. Power	1.5	+120	-155	1	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	1.5	+100	-120	1	Under
OTT S. Pinto	1.5	-160	+135	3	Over
OTT T. Chabot	1.5	-113	-105	1	Under

3 of 34 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
OTT H. Hodgson	0.5	+1100	-5000	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+370	-500	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+490	-650	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+800	–	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+1700	-10000	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+450	-900	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+950	-1200	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under

5 of 29 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+265	-345	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+142	-182	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+305	-425	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+280	-360	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+110	-129	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+270	-320	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+320	-460	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+265	-360	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+158	-190	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+205	-265	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+176	-200	1	Over
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+100	-108	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+115	-141	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+475	–	0	Under

7 of 29 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
OTT T. Stützle	1.5	+175	-230	1	Under
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+215	-300	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+390	–	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	-115	+110	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+185	-255	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+175	-240	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+115	-132	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+180	-235	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+150	-170	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+380	–	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+150	-150	1	Over
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-235	+180	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	-145	+115	1	Over
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+390	–	0	Under

0 of 19 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+380	-900	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+220	-290	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+310	-400	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+200	-275	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+310	-350	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+310	-450	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+475	-600	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+185	-250	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+380	-900	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+475	-625	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+210	-240	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+185	-250	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+270	-375	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
OTT S. Ersson	24.5	+100	-122	23	Under
BUF C. Ellis	22.5	-130	+100	28	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
OTT J. Sanderson	1.5	-145	+100	1	Under
OTT T. Chabot	1.5	-155	+110	4	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20250 SOG
Old teamJosh Norris BUF Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, BUF 3.9	OTT 2, BUF 1
Total goals	7.0	3
Shots on goal	OTT 26.8, BUF 28.0	OTT 30, BUF 24
Win chance	BUF 61%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	2	1.14	1	43%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	1	0.91	0	32%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	1	1.00	0	21%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.4	0	0.66	0	26%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.3	3	0.98	1	30%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	5	1.03	1	32%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.81	0	29%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	3	0.61	1	27%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	1	0.67	0	11%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.9	2	0.40	1	18%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.8	3	0.58	0	24%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.8	4	0.77	0	26%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.41	0	12%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.6	1	0.48	1	9%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	3	0.59	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.64	0	12%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.4	0	0.40	0	17%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.4	1	0.49	0	21%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	0	0.50	0	9%	0
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.3	2	0.28	0	6%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.2	1	0.50	0	23%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.41	1	18%	1
OTT J. Spence	1.2	0	0.33	0	6%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.54	1	15%	1
BUF R. McLeod	0.9	0	0.50	0	15%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	1	0.27	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
BUF L. Crevier	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	2	0.20	0	8%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.