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Game Recap
OTT0
FinalSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night
CAR4

CAR beat OTT 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.09 expected goals to 2.33. J. Martinook led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. S. Martin stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT0000
CAR1124
  1. 1st 8:00CARJ. Martinook0.03 xG
  2. 2nd 19:18CARS. AhoPP0.19 xG
  3. 3rd 0:43CARJ. BlakePP0.52 xG
  4. 3rd 15:06CARW. CarrierEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

OTTCAR
24Shots on goal28
2.33Expected goals4.09
47Shot attempts64
155v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play2/5
28Hits19
16Blocked shots6
8Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways15
5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.33 xGCAR 4.09 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCAR goal, 8:00CAR goal, 19:18CAR goal, 0:43CAR goal, 15:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT24 on goal, 0 scored
CAR28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GirouxRW0001000021:593:43
J. NorrisC000040-2019:173:43
T. StützleC000401-1218:413:42
D. BathersonRW000011-1018:163:21
B. TkachukLW000771-2017:113:48
S. PintoC0001020215:130:02
M. AmadioRW0000310014:420:00
R. GreigC000011-1014:142:17
D. PerronLW0002100012:012:47
A. GaudetteRW000010009:101:54
N. CousinsC000100028:450:00
Z. MacEwenRW000020007:000:00
T. ChabotD000221-2023:482:57
J. SandersonD000202-1021:434:07
N. JensenD000321-1020:410:16
A. ZubD0000330218:570:03
T. HamonicD0001100015:500:00
T. KlevenD0000020013:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Forsberg27243.88959:41Loss
L. Ullmark000–0:00

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. StaalC022010+2014:370:00
J. MartinookLW112411+2013:170:00
M. NecasC0113010019:015:28
S. AhoC1013100219:005:19
A. SvechnikovRW0112410018:235:28
J. BlakeRW1012000013:105:28
W. CarrierLW101120+2210:380:00
J. KotkaniemiC0003200016:543:27
J. RoslovicC0000000215:383:21
E. RobinsonLW0000300015:040:03
J. DruryC0002100014:533:17
T. JostC000010008:260:00
S. GostisbehereD0223200020:495:38
B. BurnsD000100+2022:413:02
J. SlavinD000001+2019:540:19
S. WalkerD0002000017:362:53
D. OrlovD0000110217:180:17
J. ChatfieldD0002010016:180:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Martin242401.00059:14Win
Y. Perets000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 2.7, CAR 3.6OTT 0, CAR 4
Total goals6.34
Shots on goalOTT 27.1, CAR 33.1OTT 24, CAR 28
Win chanceCAR 64%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.670.81030%0
CAR A. Svechnikov2.920.92130%0
CAR M. Necas2.830.88128%0
CAR S. Aho2.631.04135%1
OTT D. Batherson2.100.68023%0
OTT T. Stützle2.140.84025%0
OTT J. Norris2.000.61028%0
CAR B. Burns2.010.58012%0
OTT C. Giroux1.910.68023%0
OTT S. Pinto1.910.43017%0
CAR J. Blake1.920.41119%1
OTT T. Chabot1.920.4709%0
CAR J. Roslovic1.900.55020%0
CAR J. Martinook1.840.48218%1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.830.45017%0
OTT D. Perron1.720.50019%0
CAR J. Drury1.620.39012%0
CAR J. Staal1.500.40216%0
OTT J. Sanderson1.520.3807%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.530.66213%0
CAR J. Slavin1.500.4808%0
CAR D. Orlov1.500.50011%0
CAR W. Carrier1.510.31116%1
CAR S. Walker1.420.2808%0
CAR E. Robinson1.300.35014%0
OTT A. Gaudette1.300.25012%0
OTT R. Greig1.300.34015%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.320.3509%0
OTT M. Amadio1.300.32016%0
OTT N. Cousins1.010.1807%0
OTT T. Hamonic1.010.1404%0
OTT N. Jensen1.030.2204%0
CAR T. Jost0.900.2008%0
OTT Z. MacEwen0.900.1206%0
OTT A. Zub0.800.2104%0
OTT T. Kleven0.800.1102%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.