Game Recap: OTT 2, CAR 3 (OT), April 20, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

OTT2

Final/OTMon, Apr 20, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR3

CAR beat OTT 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 5.19 expected goals to 4.61. J. Sanderson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Martinook had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. F. Andersen stopped 37 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	2OT	T
OTT	0	2	0	0	0	2
CAR	1	1	0	0	1	3

1st 6:31CARL. StankovenPP0.25 xG
2nd 7:50CARS. Aho0.05 xG
2nd 10:47OTTD. Batherson0.15 xG
2nd 16:40OTTD. Cozens0.03 xG
2OT 13:53CARJ. Martinook0.16 xG

Team Stats

OTTCAR

39Shots on goal46

4.61Expected goals5.19

98Shot attempts107

375v5 shots on goal41

0/3Power play1/1

52Hits43

25Blocked shots28

4Penalty minutes8

27Giveaways30

11Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.61 xGCAR 5.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT38 on goal, 2 scored

CAR47 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	27:33	2:50
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	27:25	2:53
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	4	6	5	+1	0	27:09	0:14
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	29:05	3:33
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	6	1	1	-2	2	28:17	3:44
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	28:17	3:12
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	+1	0	27:04	3:12
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	24:43	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:34	2:02
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:27	2:06
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	15:04	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	12:24	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	2	3	4	+2	0	43:06	2:45
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-2	0	40:50	3:13
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	39:01	0:16
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	31:03	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	2	15:24	0:00
L. Thomson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	46	43	3	.935	93:34	Loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	4	7	1	+2	0	27:22	0:30
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	27:03	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	7	2	0	0	0	25:37	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	2	25:08	1:17
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	-1	0	24:26	1:17
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	24:20	0:47
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	21:56	1:17
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	26:04	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	7	5	2	-2	4	25:49	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:03	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:48	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	15:37	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	+1	0	34:56	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	33:52	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	+2	2	33:16	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	31:10	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	28:19	1:17
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	24:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	39	37	2	.949	93:33	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson24:05T. Stützle24:05B. Tkachuk22:52

Line 2D. Cozens24:00R. Greig25:48C. Giroux22:57

Line 3M. Amadio23:54S. Pinto23:45W. Foegele19:32

Line 4L. Eller12:24F. Zetterlund13:21N. Cousins14:45

Pair 1T. Chabot35:02J. Spence36:28

Pair 2J. Sanderson38:09N. Matinpalo30:13

Pair 3D. Gilbert15:24L. Thomson13:01

CAR

Line 1S. Jarvis23:08S. Aho23:59A. Svechnikov25:16

Line 2J. Blake23:32L. Stankoven22:50T. Hall20:33

Line 3J. Staal22:11N. Ehlers22:51J. Martinook21:37

Line 4W. Carrier15:17E. Robinson15:33M. Jankowski15:02

Pair 1K. Miller32:14S. Walker30:51

Pair 2J. Slavin27:58J. Chatfield26:58

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere24:19A. Nikishin25:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayShayne Gostisbehere CAR Turns 33 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.9, CAR 3.3	OTT 2, CAR 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	OTT 24.4, CAR 28.7	OTT 39, CAR 46
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	2.9	6	0.71	0	26%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	2	0.77	0	29%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	4	0.79	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	3	0.61	1	22%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.2	4	0.86	1	30%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.1	7	0.70	0	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	5	0.55	1	22%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	2	0.88	0	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	0	0.35	0	9%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	4	0.59	1	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	4	0.63	1	22%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	3	0.55	0	22%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.8	3	0.69	1	24%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	2	0.57	2	10%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	0	0.61	0	12%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.6	1	0.49	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	2	0.32	0	7%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	3	0.55	0	17%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	4	0.47	1	19%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	4	0.41	1	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	0	0.41	0	11%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.41	1	9%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.4	2	0.32	0	15%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	7	0.41	1	16%	1
OTT J. Spence	1.4	3	0.41	0	7%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	2	0.32	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.24	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	2	0.42	0	18%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.31	0	15%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	2	0.21	0	9%	0
OTT L. Thomson	0.7	1	0.19	0	2%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.4	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.8 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.