Game Recap: OTT 4, CGY 1, March 5, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT4

FinalThu, Mar 5, 2026Every game that night

CGY1

OTT beat CGY 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 1.59. OTT outshot CGY 37 to 20. L. Ullmark stopped 19 of 20.

Team Stats

OTTCGY

37Shots on goal20

4.04Expected goals1.59

72Shot attempts45

265v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play0/3

18Hits18

14Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways16

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.04 xGCGY 1.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT35 on goal, 3 scored

CGY20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	22:38	5:02
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:36	4:01
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	17:50	2:21
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	17:45	1:40
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	17:29	4:22
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	3	2	2	+2	2	17:25	0:00
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:30	4:20
L. Eller	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:19	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	9:03	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:38	2:36
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	12:25	0:03
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	2:02	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	18:35	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	24:14	2:26
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	+1	0	23:51	4:15
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:59	2:19
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:54	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	20	19	1	.950	59:20	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:15	3:08
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:47	3:15
M. Pospisil	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	11:29	0:31
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	21:21	2:28
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	19:49	3:13
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:13	2:14
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	2	16:53	0:11
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:34	2:54
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:54	2:46
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:31	3:02
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:40	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	2	8:21	0:10
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	24:59	2:27
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	2	24:45	0:19
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	17:36	3:29
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	16:58	0:04
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:22	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	35	33	2	.943	58:40	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson14:32T. Stützle14:33C. Giroux12:54

Line 2D. Cozens12:09B. Tkachuk12:09R. Greig12:19

Line 3N. Cousins12:22M. Amadio14:37S. Pinto11:17

Line 4L. Eller8:24F. Zetterlund9:03K. MacDermid2:02

Pair 1J. Sanderson15:43A. Zub15:56

Pair 2N. Jensen14:51T. Chabot17:01

Pair 3J. Spence14:39T. Kleven12:59

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund14:24M. Coronato15:24B. Coleman13:35

Line 2C. Zary13:12N. Kadri14:59J. Farabee10:00

Line 3M. Frost9:03M. Gridin9:36Y. Sharangovich9:51

Line 4R. Lomberg8:40A. Klapka8:11M. Pospisil9:07

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud20:06K. Bahl16:50

Pair 2Z. Parekh13:08Y. Kuznetsov14:18

Pair 3J. Hanley13:56B. Pachal13:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.2, CGY 2.8	OTT 4, CGY 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	OTT 29.2, CGY 26.1	OTT 37, CGY 20
Win chance	OTT 56%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	3	0.76	1	29%	0
CGY N. Kadri	2.8	1	0.79	0	28%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	1	0.58	0	20%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	2	0.59	1	21%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	4	0.87	1	27%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	3	0.54	0	22%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	4	0.56	1	24%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	2	0.74	1	25%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	3	0.49	0	21%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	4	0.60	0	10%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.9	0	0.40	1	17%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	4	0.48	0	10%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	1	0.49	1	23%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	1	0.47	0	20%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	0	0.48	0	19%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	1	0.40	1	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	3	0.45	1	20%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.54	0	17%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	1	0.43	0	16%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	0	0.33	0	13%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	3	0.27	1	12%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	1	0.30	0	14%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	3	0.32	0	5%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	2	0.23	0	8%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.26	1	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	0	0.17	0	3%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.0	1	0.22	1	7%	1
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	0.9	1	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	1	0.17	1	8%	1
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.23	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	1	0.13	0	2%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.2	0	0.05	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.