Game Recap: OTT 4, COL 5, October 27, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT4

FinalSun, Oct 27, 2024Every game that night

COL5

COL beat OTT 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.82 expected goals to 3.09. B. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Giroux had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Annunen stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	0	4	4
COL	1	1	3	5

1st 19:52COLN. Kovalenko0.22 xG
2nd 19:42COLJ. Manson0.02 xG
3rd 9:15OTTB. Tkachuk0.27 xG
3rd 11:23OTTN. Cousins0.56 xG
3rd 13:29COLL. O'Connor0.23 xG
3rd 15:01COLR. Colton0.03 xG
3rd 16:48OTTC. Giroux0.11 xG
3rd 18:45COLN. MacKinnonEN0.72 xG
3rd 19:50OTTC. Giroux0.09 xG

Team Stats

OTTCOL

30Shots on goal32

3.09Expected goals4.82

54Shot attempts74

245v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play0/1

38Hits20

23Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.09 xGCOL 4.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 4 scored

COL32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	2	3	5	3	0	+1	0	18:37	1:08
C. Giroux	RW	2	0	2	7	0	1	-1	0	20:37	0:42
N. Cousins	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	11:51	0:12
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:58	1:08
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	20:25	0:53
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:53	1:12
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:04	0:48
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	4	2	-1	2	15:24	0:40
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:23	0:10
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:23	0:41
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:30	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	7:15	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	-1	0	22:43	1:16
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:20	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	24:31	0:44
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	20:38	0:26
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	3	5	3	-1	0	19:54	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	29	25	4	.862	53:08	Loss
L. Ullmark	2	2	0	1.000	4:46

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	3	3	3	1	0	+1	0	19:11	1:57
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	23:14	1:49
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	2	23:13	1:48
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	6	2	2	+1	0	22:24	1:48
L. O'Connor	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:28	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:10	0:11
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:18	0:03
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:10	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:42	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:34	0:12
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	8:06	0:00
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:36	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	18:56	0:12
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	21:46	1:46
J. Manson	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	20:22	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:34	0:14
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:03	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	30	26	4	.867	59:34	Win
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamParker Kelly COL Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, COL 3.8	OTT 4, COL 5
Total goals	6.9	9
Shots on goal	OTT 29.3, COL 32.5	OTT 30, COL 32
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.5	5	1.61	2	44%	1
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	5	0.89	3	32%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.2	5	1.34	1	42%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	1	1.34	1	26%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	1	0.79	1	26%	0
COL R. Colton	2.4	6	0.67	1	28%	1
COL M. Wood	2.2	2	0.37	0	17%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	1	0.89	1	26%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	3	0.65	1	29%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.0	3	0.86	3	24%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	7	0.78	2	25%	2
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	3	0.50	1	11%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	0	0.52	0	9%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.8	2	0.26	0	12%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	1	0.72	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	1	0.44	1	11%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.5	2	0.40	1	16%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	2	0.39	0	19%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	1	0.28	0	13%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	0	0.37	0	16%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	3	0.21	0	6%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	0	0.42	0	8%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	1	0.22	2	9%	1
COL N. Kovalenko	1.2	1	0.36	1	12%	1
COL I. Ivan	1.2	2	0.36	0	13%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	0	0.47	2	7%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.1	1	0.21	0	9%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
COL C. Haan	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.15	1	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.28	0	4%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.9	2	0.13	0	7%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.8	0	0.13	0	6%	0
COL M. Stienburg	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.