Game Recap: OTT 2, DAL 4, January 2, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT2

FinalThu, Jan 2, 2025Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat OTT 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 1.55. DAL outshot OTT 25 to 13. R. Hintz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Oettinger stopped 11 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	2	0	0	2
DAL	1	2	1	4

1st 4:39DALR. HintzPP0.23 xG
1st 7:45OTTB. Tkachuk0.11 xG
1st 8:09OTTR. Greig0.16 xG
2nd 10:19DALJ. Benn0.01 xG
2nd 11:27DALR. Hintz0.18 xG
3rd 13:37DALM. Duchene0.21 xG

Team Stats

OTTDAL

13Shots on goal25

1.55Expected goals3.55

48Shot attempts65

105v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play1/5

29Hits11

19Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes8

6Giveaways13

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 1.55 xGDAL 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT11 on goal, 2 scored

DAL23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	2	4	1	+2	0	20:00	6:01
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	2	1	4	+2	2	19:40	2:57
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	0	18:50	2:50
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:49	3:44
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	20:40	5:35
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	19:31	5:04
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:52	5:29
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:24	1:39
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	11:18	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	9:30	0:15
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	2	7:02	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	6:22	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	0	26:03	3:21
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	22:37	4:39
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:51	0:16
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:08	0:03
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:30	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	25	21	4	.840	56:19	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	2	20:59	4:41
M. Duchene	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	17:50	3:37
R. Hintz	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	16:50	4:42
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	3	0	3	+1	2	15:04	4:53
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	17:13	4:40
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:00	2:46
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:43	0:48
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	13:13	2:23
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:07	3:27
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:54	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	25:05	5:57
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	21:32	0:18
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	20:46	3:15
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:21	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:57	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	4	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	13	11	2	.846	59:38	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.7, DAL 3.5	OTT 2, DAL 4
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	OTT 27.1, DAL 30.9	OTT 13, DAL 25
Win chance	DAL 63%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	2	0.77	2	29%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.8	1	0.82	2	33%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	3	0.92	2	32%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.3	0	0.52	0	17%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.46	0	10%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	3	0.77	2	33%	2
DAL J. Benn	2.1	2	0.83	1	26%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	2	0.72	1	12%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	4	0.83	2	31%	1
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	1	0.70	0	23%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	0	0.82	0	24%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	2	0.42	1	19%	0
OTT J. Norris	1.8	0	0.56	0	28%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	0	0.40	0	7%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	1	0.50	0	11%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	3	0.59	0	21%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.5	0	0.48	1	19%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	0	0.29	0	11%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	2	0.26	0	5%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.17	0	5%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.3	3	0.34	1	15%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	0	0.32	0	8%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.2	0	0.19	0	10%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.29	0	14%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.40	0	14%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	0	0.25	0	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.0	2	0.27	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.15	0	5%	0
OTT C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.7	0	0.08	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.35	0	10%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.20	0	2%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.4	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.