FLA beat OTT 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.58 expected goals to 2.47. FLA outshot OTT 48 to 27. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Tkachuk had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 3.7. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 27.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.47 xGFLA 4.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 21:08 | 3:09 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:31 | 3:06 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:30 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:35 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:52 | 2:48 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:10 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 2:03 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 1:45 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 25:35 | 1:02 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:57 | 2:57 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:14 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:34 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 47 | 43 | 4 | .915 | 58:02 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:54 | 7:23 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:07 | 5:44 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 6:31 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 19:03 | 6:21 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 3:58 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:53 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:03 | 2:25 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:16 | 1:12 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:54 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 4:03 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:41 | 5:39 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:20 | 0:04 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:15 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 1:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 59:46 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.5, FLA 3.1 | OTT 1, FLA 5 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 27.2, FLA 31.7 | OTT 27, FLA 48 |
| Win chance | FLA 60% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.7 | 11 | 0.74 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.1 | 8 | 1.04 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.0 | 7 | 0.80 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 5 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 6 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 5 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.