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Game Recap
OTT3
FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night
FLA6

FLA beat OTT 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.05 expected goals to 2.84. M. Tkachuk led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). C. Verhaeghe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Tarasov stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT0213
FLA5106
  1. 1st 0:08FLAN. Gregor0.16 xG
  2. 1st 1:06FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.16 xG
  3. 1st 9:09FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.26 xG
  4. 1st 14:02FLAA. Greer0.15 xG
  5. 1st 14:36FLAC. Verhaeghe0.18 xG
  6. 2nd 1:40OTTD. Batherson0.12 xG
  7. 2nd 12:41FLAM. Tkachuk0.24 xG
  8. 2nd 15:14OTTJ. Spence0.01 xG
  9. 3rd 4:29OTTM. Amadio0.13 xG

Team Stats

OTTFLA
26Shots on goal29
2.84Expected goals5.05
57Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal16
0/5Power play2/3
17Hits18
6Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes23
15Giveaways11
4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.84 xGFLA 5.05 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdFLA goal, 0:08FLA goal, 1:06FLA goal, 9:09FLA goal, 14:02FLA goal, 14:36OTT goal, 1:40FLA goal, 12:41OTT goal, 15:14OTT goal, 4:29

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT24 on goal, 3 scored
FLA28 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. AmadioRW112200+1014:200:03
T. StützleC011220+1021:058:45
D. BathersonRW101100-1018:167:01
R. GreigC011101+1016:532:52
S. PintoC000010-1220:485:39
D. CozensC000141-1020:217:40
B. TkachukLW000411-1020:188:11
C. GirouxRW000000-1016:175:22
F. ZetterlundLW0001000012:112:48
N. CousinsC000110-1011:090:20
W. FoegeleLW0002000010:201:07
L. EllerC0001010010:080:36
J. SpenceD101410-2024:056:39
L. ThomsonD011111+2013:491:41
T. KlevenD000320+1222:390:23
N. MatinpaloD000010-1016:360:00
A. ZubD000130-1215:430:00
C. YakemchukD000101-1013:422:31
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark16115.68814:36Loss
J. Reimer13121.92341:57

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. TkachukLW1345100017:133:55
C. VerhaegheC2136110016:593:55
S. BennettC0223010217:193:55
A. GreerLW101300+1016:510:00
E. LuostarinenC011202+1015:510:00
T. NosekLW0110210015:210:00
M. SamoskevichRW101101+1012:461:59
N. GregorLW1011200159:250:00
J. BoqvistC0000100014:510:00
L. KuninC0000220011:040:00
C. ReinhardtLW0000120010:250:00
V. HinostrozaC0002100210:160:00
S. JonesD033111+2025:203:55
D. SebrangoD011022+2017:550:00
G. ForslingD0002200224:260:00
A. EkbladD0001000020:491:56
M. BenningD000101-1015:090:00
D. KulikovD000120-1215:000:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Tarasov26233.88560:00Win
S. Bobrovsky000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk11:32D. Cozens11:36R. Greig11:50
Line 2N. Cousins10:49S. Pinto11:58M. Amadio12:55
Line 3L. Eller9:01F. Zetterlund8:59W. Foegele8:43
Line 4D. Batherson10:03T. Stützle11:03C. Giroux9:37
Pair 1A. Zub14:23T. Kleven20:30
Pair 2L. Thomson10:18N. Matinpalo13:18
Pair 3J. Spence15:34C. Yakemchuk11:11

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe11:48S. Bennett11:11M. Tkachuk10:48
Line 2A. Greer11:50M. Samoskevich10:26E. Luostarinen11:06
Line 3V. Hinostroza10:16C. Reinhardt10:09L. Kunin9:48
Line 4T. Nosek10:21J. Boqvist10:34N. Gregor9:25
Pair 1G. Forsling17:05A. Ekblad13:53
Pair 2D. Kulikov13:43M. Benning14:04
Pair 3S. Jones14:04D. Sebrango12:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamBrady Tkachuk FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20264 SOG
  • Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.1, FLA 2.8OTT 3, FLA 6
Total goals5.99
Shots on goalOTT 27.9, FLA 24.5OTT 26, FLA 29
Win chanceOTT 55%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.340.80029%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.751.06433%1
FLA S. Bennett2.530.79230%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.460.79330%2
OTT T. Stützle2.120.93128%0
OTT D. Cozens2.110.61022%0
FLA M. Samoskevich2.110.44116%1
OTT D. Batherson2.010.74125%1
OTT S. Pinto1.900.56023%0
OTT J. Spence1.840.5418%1
OTT T. Kleven1.830.3606%0
FLA S. Jones1.610.49311%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.520.50117%0
FLA A. Greer1.430.36116%1
FLA A. Ekblad1.410.49011%0
OTT W. Foegele1.420.33016%0
OTT R. Greig1.410.37115%0
FLA G. Forsling1.420.3509%0
FLA V. Hinostroza1.320.34014%0
OTT C. Giroux1.300.51016%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.310.30013%0
OTT A. Zub1.210.3506%0
FLA N. Gregor1.210.21110%1
OTT M. Amadio1.220.42218%1
OTT N. Cousins1.110.29011%0
FLA J. Boqvist1.000.32014%0
OTT N. Matinpalo1.000.1402%0
FLA L. Kunin1.000.17010%0
FLA T. Nosek1.000.2317%0
FLA C. Reinhardt0.900.19011%0
OTT L. Eller0.910.2008%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.910.2005%0
OTT L. Thomson0.810.1812%0
FLA D. Sebrango0.700.1413%0
FLA M. Benning0.710.3404%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.