MTL beat OTT 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.62 expected goals to 2.39. MTL outshot OTT 33 to 25. C. Dvorak led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Slafkovský had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Montembeault stopped 22 of 25.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.39 xGMTL 3.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:21 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:03 | 2:55 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:54 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:59 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:02 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:16 | 3:13 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:30 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:47 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:49 | 3:12 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 1:03 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:21 | 0:19 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 58:29 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:28 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 6:09 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:11 | 1:03 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 19:49 | 4:44 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 4:42 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 4:51 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:32 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:12 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:13 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 4:44 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:17 | 1:32 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.1, MTL 3.1 | OTT 3, MTL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 28.9, MTL 27.5 | OTT 25, MTL 33 |
| Win chance | MTL 51% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 6 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 3 | 0.96 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 3 | 19% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 4 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 4 | 0.15 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.