Game Recap: OTT 3, MTL 4 (OT), November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT3

Final/OTSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat OTT 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.50 expected goals to 2.33. MTL outshot OTT 27 to 17. D. Batherson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). I. Demidov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Montembeault stopped 14 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	0	2	1	0	3
MTL	2	0	1	1	4

1st 7:05MTLC. Caufield0.27 xG
1st 9:25MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.21 xG
2nd 11:53OTTD. Batherson0.03 xG
2nd 19:49OTTM. Amadio0.44 xG
3rd 12:27OTTT. Stützle0.10 xG
3rd 17:37MTLI. Demidov0.15 xG
OT 1:40MTLA. Newhook0.15 xG

Team Stats

OTTMTL

17Shots on goal27

2.33Expected goals3.50

55Shot attempts49

155v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play1/3

27Hits27

12Blocked shots20

16Penalty minutes16

15Giveaways7

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.33 xGMTL 3.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT17 on goal, 3 scored

MTL26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	1	1	2	3	4	0	+1	2	17:40	1:47
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	21:01	1:27
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	19:31	2:24
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:08	0:07
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	20:42	1:52
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	19:52	2:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:17	1:24
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:01	2:05
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:51	2:02
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:10	0:34
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	8:01	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	2:04	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	22:45	0:15
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	5	11:48	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	26:08	2:09
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	25:05	1:49
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:53	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	23	4	.852	61:40	OT loss
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	0	0	19:06	2:22
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	17:55	2:22
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	18:51	2:33
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+2	0	16:51	0:11
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+2	0	16:03	2:22
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:31	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	15:28	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:03	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:01	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	7	12:00	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	10:41	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	10:14	0:07
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	2	1	5	+1	0	25:02	0:11
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:47	2:22
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:18	0:11
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	19:53	0:04
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	5	15:44	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	17	14	3	.824	61:40	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1R. Greig17:04D. Cozens16:07D. Perron12:56

Line 2M. Amadio16:01S. Pinto15:46C. Giroux14:12

Line 3T. Stützle14:30D. Batherson14:56N. Cousins8:01

Line 4F. Zetterlund11:36L. Eller10:54K. MacDermid2:04

Pair 1N. Jensen19:39T. Chabot21:07

Pair 2A. Zub19:22J. Sanderson19:43

Pair 3T. Kleven11:48N. Matinpalo11:29

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:09J. Slafkovský15:55C. Caufield14:03

Line 2K. Dach15:00Z. Bolduc15:26J. Veleno12:00

Line 3A. Newhook13:35O. Kapanen13:06I. Demidov12:05

Line 4J. Anderson8:23J. Evans9:40B. Gallagher10:07

Pair 1M. Matheson19:34N. Dobson19:04

Pair 2L. Hutson18:13J. Struble14:18

Pair 3A. Carrier17:19A. Xhekaj14:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, MTL 3.1	OTT 3, MTL 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	OTT 27.5, MTL 25.8	OTT 17, MTL 27
Win chance	MTL 51%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	3	0.85	2	35%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	0	0.61	0	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	1	0.88	1	27%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	2	0.59	0	10%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	1.01	2	29%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	3	0.76	2	25%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	3	0.64	1	27%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	2	0.59	0	10%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	1	0.67	1	24%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	0	0.55	0	11%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	2	0.45	0	18%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	2	0.46	1	9%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	0	0.33	0	15%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.7	0	0.53	0	23%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	1	0.62	0	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	0	0.34	0	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	3	0.41	1	18%	1
OTT L. Eller	1.3	1	0.34	0	14%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.3	1	0.38	0	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.38	1	19%	1
MTL J. Evans	1.2	0	0.43	0	14%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	1	0.82	1	7%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.34	0	13%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.0	4	0.59	1	15%	1
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.33	0	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.14	1	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.27	1	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	0	0.13	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	2	0.21	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	1	0.10	0	3%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.4	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.